FX.co ★ EUR/USD analysis and forecast for July 1, 2022

As a result, the first month of trading in the summer has ended. We must acknowledge that the primary currency pair EUR/USD finished on a rather sad note. The US dollar is still strong, as demonstrated at the June auction when it faced up against all except the Swiss franc's primary rivals. However, this is entirely another tale. And I recommend looking at the most senior timeframe and summarizing the month's outcomes that ended yesterday in today's article on the euro/dollar.

Monthly

You will first notice the major support area near 1.0350, which is now indubitably historical. The fall, which had already been noticed in 2017, was stopped by this sturdy technical level, as is evident on the chart. I recall that occasion and how parity, or the level of 1.0000, was expected for the euro/dollar at that time. Instead, the pair took action, turned upward, and not only turned around but also grew decently, rising to the level of 1.2555. Following that, both ups and downs were seen in the price dynamics of the EUR/USD, and as a result of all these moves, the quote fell back to levels last seen five years ago. The relatively large shadows of the last two monthly candles amply illustrate the strength of the 1.0350 level. But nothing endures forever. Once more, I'd guess that the pair would indeed move quickly toward parity in the event of a true collapse of the 1.0350-1.0300 price range. The ending of July trading above 1.0775 will likely pave the way for higher prices, possibly even to the Tenkan red line, which is positioned at 1.0983, or to another significant historical and technical level of 1.1000. This is easy to predict, given the lows and highs of the previous month. If the July trades close at 1.0339 (the January 2017 lows), the pair will undoubtedly anticipate a route to the south, whose ferocity will only grow.

Daily

The EUR/USD pair displayed resilience throughout yesterday's trade. After attempting to breach another important key of 1.0400, it found firm support at 1.0383 and figuratively rose from the ashes to close Thursday's session at 1.0483. However, as the euro/dollar is currently trading below the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator, which is directly at this crucial level and the major psychological level of 1.0500, negative risks for the pair still exist. In this regard, it will be fascinating to see how the market will respond to today's eurozone inflation figures. I want to remind you that all versions of the eurozone consumer price index, including their base value, will be released at 10:00 London time. Since the European regulator has launched and postponed the issue of high inflation, I assume that the growth of consumer prices in the eurozone will be comparable to and, in some cases, even exceeding forecasts. This will support the single currency because it will be clearer that the ECB needs to turn its words into deeds. If technology is our only point of interest, then the bullish candle from yesterday with its lengthy lower shadow provides every reason to anticipate that the EUR/USD expansion may continue today. However, as is customary on the final trading day of the week, I won't provide any specific suggestions for trading. I assure you that this is not the ideal time.