FX.co ★ Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on July 1, 2022

Let's look at how well the British pound sterling has performed when paired with the US dollar since the market ended trading for the first month of summer yesterday, as you are probably aware. But first, a little background on the oldest period. Naturally, trading every month is impossible due to the enormous price fluctuations and the challenging nature of identifying the best entry and exit moments. However, it is important to consider the candle that appears, its closing price, and the maximum and lowest values following each close of monthly trading. All those mentioned above can assist in understanding the course's future path at the beginning of the month.

Monthly

Last month, the pound experienced intense selling pressure and dropped as far as 1.2000. The GBP/USD pair did, however, manage to find solid support at 1.1932, after which it entered the correction phase. As a result, the June auction ended at the price of 1.2174, and the candle's lower shadow was rather remarkable. If you look at the history, and the monthly chart is ideal for this, you can see that the pair has frequently established strong support at about 1.2000, following which it has sprinted in the direction of the north. The same thing occurred in 2020, 2019, and 2017. Although the pair fell as low as 1.1410 in 2020, it was able to significantly cut losses by closing the March candle of this year at 1.2412.

I want to reiterate that the pound is one of the most volatile currencies and has the potential to experience the greatest falls and the highest ups. The primary interest rate has been raised by the Bank of England numerous times, but the pound has not benefited from these increases. The market's complete disregard for the British Central Bank's hike in the primary interest rate is astonishing. However, nothing in the market is unexpected or impossibly difficult. You should constantly be ready for everything and not pass out when making some extremely powerful motions. The ending of July at 1.2000, and much more so below 1.1932, will significantly help players decrease the rate, according to the technical picture on the most senior timeframe. Only after a genuine breakdown of the resistance levels of 1.2600 and 1.2665 is an upward scenario viable.

Daily

The pound/dollar currency pair rose throughout yesterday's trade, and the start of the higher dynamics was close to another significant and crucial technical mark of 1.2100. Today, when this piece is being finished, the opposite image is visible; the pair is trading lower and is once more attempting to move below the level of 1.2100. Despite the MACD indicator's positive divergence, it is not advantageous for players to drive up the exchange rate. The "Briton" cannot raise his head because of the potential negative consequences. But it might occur at any time. I won't disguise the fact that I anticipate that the pound will still be able to change the direction of trade in a pair with the US dollar in its favor despite the already significant decrease and the daily bullish divergence of the MACD indicator. However, I'm not recommending making any purchases; instead, you should wait for strong indications and do it weekly. It's not the most enjoyable activity to sell on the approach to the historical, technical, and psychological level of 1.2000. Therefore, I advise keeping away from the GBP/USD market for the time being.