Bitcoin continues to trade above $20,000. This level is considered the psychological core of the local uptrend. The asset has reached the upper boundary of the current range of fluctuations at $24,200. However, its further movement was hampered by falling buying volumes. Despite this fact, Bitcoin began to consolidate above $20,000. This indicates that the cryptocurrency under certain circumstances will resume its upward movement.
The lack of fundamental factors also positively affects Bitcoin's price. The news about Tesla selling 75% of its stock had minimal impact on the market. On the one hand, it indicates that the market clears from speculative investors and borrowed capital. On the other hand, it suggests that investors focus on further price increase. At the same time, there is a process of active accumulation of addresses holding less than 1 BTC in one wallet. Therefore, the situation in the crypto market is gradually improving. Moreover, the number of addresses with non-zero balance is growing rapidly in the Bitcoin network.
Overall, the situation is becoming more favorable to resume investment flows in BTC. However, despite this optimism, the market is facing difficulties in July 2022. On July 26-27, the US Federal Reserve will hold a meeting to raise its key rate. According to analysts, the probability of a 100 basis point key rate hike is estimated at 80%. At the same time, most investors expect the regulator to raise the key rate by 0.75%. This is alarming news, as taking into account June 2022, the current situation can have negative consequences for the market.
The key point is that the third-largest Bitcoin whale has transferred more than 150,000 coins to exchanges in the past week. The last transaction to the crypto platform totaled over 29,000 BTC. It is likely that these moves take place within the cryptocurrency exchange. However, in case this transfer is from a cold wallet to the cryptocurrency's balances, the pressure on the BTC price will increase.
Moreover, it is important to realize that the past three weeks have been a favorable investment environment for cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin. This has triggered an influx of retail investors. However, the majority of them pursue short-term goals. In other words, they use borrowed funds to achieve speculative goals. Besides, this category of investors reacts impulsively to fundamental events. Taking into account the upcoming Fed meeting, the impact of short-term investors on BTC may provoke a collapse.
Moreover, BTC mining shows a continuing negative trend. Its mining companies took about 14,000 BTC to exchanges in the past week. Miner Reserve's on-chain metric also indicates that the inventories are shrinking. It means further liquidity and credit problems. Mining companies played a key role in Bitcoin's decline in late June 2022. It is more likely that if the asset's price falls below $20,000, BTC sales may increase.
Taking into account the current factors, Bitcoin has several possible scenarios of price movements. The asset failed to retest the $23,500-$24,000 range. The price is moving down to $22,700. This level has locally been broken. Currently, Bitcoin has to consolidate above this figure to reach $24,200 again. The upper boundary of the fluctuation range is the main target for bulls. If the BTC/USD pair does not close above $24,000, the probability of an upward movement will reduce.
It is more likely that the asset will move to $21,500. The current situation indicates this option. If the BTC/USD pair breaks through the $21,500 level, it will continue its downward movement to the $20,000-$19,500 range. The current market situation and the initiative of buyers suggest that sellers will not have enough volumes to break through this area. However, if they succeed, the probability of a local bottom retest will significantly increase. It's essential to monitor where the price will close the current trading day. If it is above $21,500, further growth will become more likely. In case the price falls below this level, the downward movement will intensify.