Bitcoin continues its upward movement and confidently consolidates above the $22k level. The cryptocurrency is slowly moving towards the next resistance area, which runs at $22.5k–$23.1k. At the same time, the ultimate target of the bullish movement can be called another retest of the upper boundary of the $18k–$25 wide range.
Bitcoin technical indicators show local weakness caused by the $22.6k resistance zone piercing, which triggered an increase in sellers' volumes. As a result, the RSI reached 60 and turned sideways. The stochastic oscillator has been in the overbought zone for the second day. The metric formed a bearish crossover and began to decline. These technical metrics indicate a local decrease in buying activity.
At the same time, the MACD remains bullish and maintains an upward movement towards the zero mark and the green zone. This is an important bullish signal indicating the presence of a medium-term upward movement. Given this, the local weakness of BTC can be interpreted as a healing correction. Most likely, with the opening of the American markets, the price will resume growth.
Alternative scenario for the development of events
Another scenario of the development of events, which is tied to fundamental factors, is also quite probable. Today, September 13, the statistics of the consumer price index for August will be published. In July, the figure fell to 8.5%, but the CPI forecast for August is 8.1%.
On the one hand, I want to be sure that the publication of financial statements will not affect the price of BTC in any way, given that the market is preparing to raise the key rate by 75 basis points. The "smart money" of the crypto market is already ready for a further fall in inflation, and the expected outcome of the event is embedded in the price of Bitcoin.
This means that the reaction of the market to the continued pace of falling inflation will be insignificant. Despite this, we can expect a local pullback of the price to the range of $20.5k–$21.1k. This may be due to the fixation of short-term positions by investors who bet on a further fall in inflation.
The ultimate target of the current upward movement of Bitcoin can be considered the $24k–$25k range. Subsequently, the price will again begin to decline due to the pressure of miners and macro trends. It is likely that this will be the last drop in the formation of the "triple bottom" pattern, which will subsequently lead to a significant upward movement of BTC/USD to the $27k–$28k area.
Will Bitcoin continue to be bullish?
As of September 13, the further upward movement of Bitcoin is not in doubt for the following factors:
- correction of the DXY index, which has an inverse correlation with Bitcoin;
- the upward movement of the S&P 500, which has a direct correlation with Bitcoin;
- adaptation of the market to the publication of CPI reports and low volatility in the market.
Given these factors, Bitcoin will continue its upward movement towards the upper $24k–$25k swing area within the current wide range of $17.7k–$25k. The pace of growth may slow down in the next few days due to the activation of bears near the $22.6k level, as well as a potential pullback on news of rising inflation.