FX.co ★ CPI reports brought down Bitcoin's fragile upward movement: what to expect next?

Contrary to many expectations, Bitcoin successfully spent the second part of last week. The asset managed to defend the $18.5k–$19k level and resume its upward movement. The formation of the largest green candle in the last three months gave hope for a strong bullish momentum. Along with Bitcoin, stock indices grew, including the S&P 500 and NASDAQ.

The US dollar index corrected after reaching another high, which gave high-risk assets time to rise. Analysts at State Street report that institutional investors remain confident in the prospects and value of cryptocurrencies. Their main focus is on Ethereum before the merger, which is why Bitcoin falls out of the investment agenda. According to Santiment, the local undervaluation of BTC provoked a strong rebound to the $22k level.

The publication of CPI and the reaction of the crypto market

Most factors indicated a high probability of BTC reaching a local high at $25k. The publication of the dynamics of the consumer price index put a bold dot on market expectations. The indicator decreased from 8.5% to 8.3%, with a forecast of a fall to 8.1%. The rate of decline in the inflation rate was below forecasts.

The cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin reacted sharply negatively. As of September 14, of the top 30 cryptocurrencies, only Litecoin managed to maintain stability. The capitalization of the industry fell by 6.6% to $900 billion, and Bitcoin lost 9% in a few hours. As of 08:00 UTC, BTC/USD has consolidated near the $20.2k support level. Stock indices also fell, with the S&P 500 down 4.3% overnight, the biggest drop since June 2020.

BTC/USD Technical analysis

In technical terms, the cryptocurrency has reached a local support zone in the $19.8k–$20.2k area. Following the results of the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has formed a bearish engulfing pattern, which indicates a continuation of the downward trend. Selling volumes continue to grow, but technical metrics signal a local reversal. The RSI and Stochastics bounced off the 35–45 area and are starting to move flat, which indicates consolidation.

Bullish scenario

Bitcoin needs to hold above the $20k level in order to maintain the opportunity to resume the upward movement. If the round mark is maintained, the price of BTC will rush to the $20.4k–$20.9k resistance area. Successful passage of this segment and consolidation above $21k opens up prospects for movement to $22k before the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin will most likely be in the consolidation stage in the coming days after the negative news.

Bearish scenario

The shock state of the market will be replaced by awareness of the difficulties of fighting inflation. Most likely, this will lead to a decrease in investment activity in the cryptocurrency market and a reorientation of investors to USD products. In the shorter term, this will be reflected in the price movement towards the key support area of $19.5k–$19.9k. Given the effect of the ETH update, it can be assumed that this zone will be the final one before the reversal. But in case of aggravation of the bearish movement by additional negative factors, the price will meet support at the final level of $18.5k–$19k.

Results

Summing up the results of the CPI publication, we can say that the situation with liquidity and tightening of monetary policy will not change in the coming months. Powell stated that the Fed's actions would depend on the fact, which turned out to be undervalued alarming. Inflation is falling, but very slowly, and therefore an increase in the key rate by 75 basis points in September is a settled issue. In the coming weeks, the market will prepare for a rate hike, as well as adapt its investment strategy to the deterioration of the financial environment.