FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on October 5, 2022

The euro rose 160 points yesterday on the back of continued risk appetite in the stock markets. The US S&P 500 added 3.06%. Yields on government bonds also fell - on 5-year bonds from 4.06% to 3.88%. The level of accumulation of stop losses in the area of 1.9870 was overcome and the euro was able to overcome the technical resistance - the level of 0.9950 we defined and the MACD line of the daily scale.

The price stuck in the range of monthly consolidation on August 22-September 20 at 0.9950-1.0050. Yesterday's surge in the stock markets is unlikely to repeat today, and on Friday there will be data on labor in the US for September. The forecast for new jobs in the non-farm sector is 250,000, which is very good and could add to the worries about the rate. At the upper border of the specified range (1.0050), the price will most likely reverse downwards, with the price returning below 0.9855. The price may not reach 1.0050. The main sign of a reversal will be consolidation under 0.9950.

Divergence is already visible on the four-hour timescale. It can be smoothed out in the next 24 hours, but this is a visual indication of further difficulties for the bulls in the monthly price consolidation zone. Albeit with difficulty, but the price can still consolidate under the level of 0.9950. We are waiting for the development of events.