FX.co ★ The most important economic events of the week 10/31/2022 – 11/06/2022

The last full trading week of October has ended, extremely volatile, during which meetings of three largest world central banks (Canada, eurozone, Japan) took place at once. If the decisions taken by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on interest rates coincided with market expectations, then the Bank of Canada made an unexpected decision, surprising investors. The central bank raised its interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, although markets had expected a 75 bps hike. The decision, which appears to have been fueled by growing concerns about the threat of a slowdown in the Canadian economy and a deepening global recession, disappointed market participants and sent the Canadian dollar sharply weaker. Moreover, the head of the bank, Tiff Macklem, said that the central bank is nearing the end of the tightening phase, although further interest rate hikes are still possible.

Next week, market participants will focus on two main and key events: the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and the release on Friday of the monthly report of the US Department of Labor for October. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of England (BoE) will also hold their meetings on monetary policy issues. A lot of important macro statistics for China, Germany, the eurozone, Canada, New Zealand, and the USA will also be published. In other words, the coming week will be even more volatile. But it also carries a ton of trading opportunities.

Take note that next week European countries are switching to winter time: in the trading terminals of forex brokers and in the economic calendar, the time will be shifted back by 1 hour.

Monday 31 October

Australia. Retail sales level

The Retail Sales Level Index is the main indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. It is also considered an indicator of consumer confidence and reflects the state of the retail sector in the short term.

The growth of the index is usually a positive factor for the AUD; a decrease in the indicator and worse-than-expected data are considered negative.

Previous index values: +0.6%, +1.3%, +0.2%, +0.9%, +0.9%, +1.6%, +1.8%, +1.8 % (in January 2022). September forecast: -0.2%.

The level of influence on the markets is average.

China. Chinese Federation of Logistics and Purchasing PMI (CFLP) business activity indexes in the manufacturing and services sectors of the Chinese economy

This report is an analysis of a survey of 3,000 purchasing managers, in which respondents are asked to rate the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventory. Purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date information about the situation in the company, so this indicator is an important indicator of the state of the Chinese economy as a whole.

Since the Chinese economy is, according to various estimates, the first in the world (at the moment), Chinese macro data can have a big impact on the financial market and investor sentiment, especially on the markets of the Asia-Pacific region.

Data above 50 indicates an increase in activity. The relative growth of the index and values above 50 should have a positive impact on the CNY.

Previous values: 50.1, 49.4, 49.0, 50.2, 49.6, 47.4, 49.5, 50.2, 50.1 (in January 2022) for manufacturing PMI , and 50.6, 52.6, 53.8, 54.7, 47.8, 41.9, 48.4, 51.6, 51.1 (in January 2022) for Services PMI.

Forecast for October: 49.2 and 51.9, respectively.

The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.

Germany. Retail sales

The statistical office of Germany will publish a report with data on retail sales. The change in the indicators of the report on retail sales affects the indicator of consumer spending, indirectly indicating the state of the German economy and the level of income of citizens.

The German economy is the locomotive of the entire European economy. Therefore, euro quotes are very sensitive to the release of important macro statistics for Germany.

A high result usually strengthens the euro, and vice versa, a low result weakens it. Data better than the forecast and/or the previous value is likely to have a positive impact on the euro, but - in the short term.

Previous values: -1.3% (-4.3% YoY), +1.9% (-2.6% YoY), -1.5% (-9.6% YoY) , +1.2% (+1.1% YoY), -5.4% (-0.4% YoY), +0.9% (-1.7% YoY), + 0.2% (+6.9% YoY), -0.2% (+10.1% YoY) in January 2022.

September forecast: -0.4% (annualized).

The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.

Eurozone. GDP for the 3rd quarter (preliminary estimate). Consumer Price Indices in the eurozone (preliminary release)

Eurostat will publish a report with preliminary data on eurozone GDP for the 3rd quarter. There are three versions of the quarterly GDP, published at intervals of approximately 20 days - Preliminary, Updated, Final (final release). The pre-release is the earliest and therefore tends to have the most impact on the markets. This report reflects the general economic performance of the eurozone countries and has a significant impact on the decision of the ECB on monetary policy.

GDP growth means an improvement in economic conditions, which makes it possible (with a corresponding increase in inflation) to tighten monetary policy, which, in turn, usually has a positive effect on national currency quotes.

This report usually causes an increase in volatility in EUR quotes. It is likely that the release of the report with data on eurozone GDP for the 3rd quarter will be released with positive indicators. Data worse than forecast/previous values will have a negative impact on EUR quotes.

Previous values: +0.8% (+4.1% YoY) in Q2 2022, +0.6% (+5.4% YoY in Q1 2022), + 0.3% (+4.6% YoY) in Q4, +2.2% (+3.9% YoY) in Q3, +2.2% (+14, 3% YoY) in Q2 and a -0.3% drop (-1.3% YoY) in Q1 2021.

The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) determines the change in prices in a certain basket of goods and services over a given period, being a key indicator for assessing inflation and changing consumer preferences.

In the core consumer price index (Core Consumer Price Index, Core CPI), food and energy are excluded from the calculation for a more accurate estimate.

Estimating the level of inflation is important for the management of the central bank in determining the parameters of the current monetary policy. A reading lower than forecast/previous could trigger a weaker euro as low inflation forces the ECB to stay loose on monetary policy. Conversely, rising inflation and its high level will put pressure on the ECB to tighten its monetary policy, which in normal economic conditions is assessed as a positive factor for the national currency.

Previous CPI values (annualized): +9.9%, +9.1%, +8.9%, +8.6%, +8.1%, +7.4%, +7.4 %, +5.9%, +5.1% (in January 2022).

Previous Core CPI values (annualized): +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.0%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +3.5%, +3, 0%, +2.7%, +2.3% (in January 2022).

The level of influence on the markets (preliminary assessment) is high.

Tuesday 01 November

Saints' Day is celebrated in European Catholic countries: banks are closed in them, which will affect the volume of trading in financial markets - they will be lower than usual.

Australia. RBA meeting and interest rate decision. RBA accompanying statement

During the May meeting, RBA leaders made a surprise decision to raise the interest rate to contain inflation, which reached a 20-year high (in the 1st quarter of 2022, headline annual consumer price inflation in Australia was 5.1%, and core inflation was 3.7 %, with the target RBA level of 2-3% per year). The interest rate was raised by 0.25%, to 0.35%, for the first time in the last 11 years, and the forecast assumed an increase of only 0.15%.

As stated in the accompanying statement, "given the progress towards full employment and data on prices and wages, some curtailment of the emergency monetary support provided during the pandemic is advisable," and "the board (of the central bank) will do everything necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to the target level over time."". "This will require further interest rate hikes in the future," said RBA Governor Philip Lowe.

In June, the interest rate was again raised to 0.85%, in July to 1.35%, in August to 1.85%, and in October to 2.60%. At the same time, economists expect that the RBA will continue to raise interest rates, at least until the end of this year. This, in turn, creates prerequisites for the strengthening of the Australian dollar.

It is possible that at this meeting the central bank of Australia will again raise the interest rate, although unexpected decisions are possible, for example, a decrease or a stronger increase in the interest rate.

It is likely that the AUD will react positively to the decision to raise the interest rate, as market participants will receive confirmation of the seriousness of the RBA's intentions in its desire to tame the rising inflation in the country and reach the level of 2.05-2.6% by the end of the year, however, provided that the accompanying statement will not contain unexpected statements, for example, about the need to take a break before a further increase in the interest rate.

In any case, during the announcement of the RBA's decision on the interest rate, an increase in volatility in AUD quotes is expected.

If the RBA's accompanying statement signals a wait-and-see attitude, the Australian dollar is likely to come under pressure. However, the market's reaction to the RBA's decisions regarding the interest rate in the current situation may turn out to be completely unpredictable.

The level of influence on the markets is high.

UK. Index (PMI) of business activity in the manufacturing sector (final release)

The UK Manufacturing PMI (from S&P Global) is an important indicator of the health of the UK economy. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast and the previous value, then the pound is likely to fall sharply in the short term. Data better than the forecast and the previous value will have a positive impact on the pound. At the same time, a result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the GBP, below 50 is considered negative for the GBP.

Previous values: 48.4, 47.3, 52.1, 52.8, 54.6, 55.8, 55.2, 58.0, 57.3.

The preliminary score was: 45.8.

The level of influence on the markets (final release) is average.

Canada. Business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector

The monthly S&P Global report publishes (among other data) the PMI in the manufacturing sector of the Canadian economy, which is an important indicator of the state of this sector and the Canadian economy as a whole. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the CAD, below 50 as negative for the Canadian dollar. The data above the value of 50 indicate an acceleration of activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. If the indicator falls below the forecast and, especially, below the value of 50, the dollar may sharply weaken in the short term.

Previous indicator values: 48.7, 52.5, 54.6, 56.8, 56.2, 58.9, 56.6, 56.2 (in January 2022).

The level of influence on the markets is average.

USA. Manufacturing PMI (from S&P Global) (final release)

The monthly S&P Global report releases (among other data) a composite PMI index and PMI indices in the manufacturing sector and in the services sector of the US economy, which are an important indicator of the state of these sectors and the US economy as a whole. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the USD, below 50 is considered negative for the US dollar. The data above the value of 50 indicate an acceleration of activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. If the indicator falls below the forecast and, especially, below the value of 50, the dollar may sharply weaken in the short term.

The previous values of the PMI indicator in the manufacturing sector were 52.0, 51.5, 52.2, 57.0, 59.2.

The preliminary score was: 49.9.

The level of influence on the markets of this S&P Global report (final release) is medium. It is also lower than the similar report from ISM (American Institute of Supply Management)

USA. Business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector

The monthly report of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) publishes (among other data) the PMI index of manufacturing activity in the US economy, which is an important indicator of the state of this sector and the American economy as a whole. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the USD, below 50 is considered negative for the US dollar. The data above the value of 50 indicate an acceleration of activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. If the indicator falls below the forecast and, especially, below the value of 50, the dollar may sharply weaken in the short term.

Previous indicator values: 50.9, 52.8, 53.0, 56.1, 55.4, 57.1, 58.6, 57.6 (in January 2022).

Forecast for October: 50.4.

The level of influence on the markets is high.

New Zealand. Dairy Price Index

This leading indicator of a country's foreign trade balance reflects the weighted average price of 9 dairy products sold at an auction organized by Global Dairy Trade (GDT) in percentage terms and is usually published every 2 weeks.

The economy of New Zealand still has signs of raw materials in many respects, and the bulk of New Zealand's exports are dairy products and food products of animal origin (27%, according to 2020 data). Therefore, the decline in world prices for dairy products has a negative impact on NZD quotes, as it signals a decrease in export earnings coming to the New Zealand budget.

Conversely, an increase in the dairy price index has a positive effect on the NZD.

Previous values: -4.6%, +2.0%, +4.9%, -2.9%, -5.0%, -4.1%, -1.3%, +1.5% , -2.9%, -8.5%, -3.6%, -1.0%, -0.9%.

The level of influence on the markets is from low to medium.

Australia. Index (PMI) of business activity in the manufacturing sector (from AiG)

This report from the Australian Industry Group AiG is an analysis of a survey of 200 purchasing managers that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventory. Since purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date information on the situation in the company, this indicator is an important indicator of the state of the German economy as a whole. This sector of the economy forms a significant part of Australia's GDP. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the AUD, below 50 as negative for the Australian dollar. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the AUD.

Previous values: 50.2, 49.3, 52.5, 54.0, 52.4, 58.5, 55.7.

The level of influence on the markets is average.

New Zealand. Data from the labor market of the country (for the 3rd quarter)

The New Zealand Bureau of Statistics is to publish a report containing important data on the state of the labor market, which are of critical importance (along with data on GDP and inflation) for the country's central bank when deciding on the parameters of the current monetary policy.

The employment rate reflects the change in the number of employed. The growth of the indicator has a positive impact on consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth. A high reading is positive for NZD, while a low reading is negative.

Previous (quarterly) changes in the employment rate: 0%, +0.1%, +0.1%, +1.9%, +1.0%, +0.6% (in the 1st quarter of 2021) .

The unemployment rate is an indicator that assesses the ratio of the share of the unemployed population to the total number of able-bodied citizens. The growth of the indicator indicates the weakness of the labor market, which leads to a weakening of the national economy. The decrease in the indicator is a positive factor for the NZD.

Previous (quarterly) values: 3.3%, 3.2%, 3.2%, 3.3%, 4.0%, 4.6% (in Q1 2021).

The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.

Japan. Minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the BOJ

This document, which is a detailed account of the latest meeting of the leadership of the BOJ, provides insight into the economic conditions that influenced its decision on the parameters of the current monetary policy.

If the BOJ is positive about the state of the labor market in the country, the GDP growth rate, and also shows a hawkish attitude towards the inflationary forecast in the economy, the markets regard this as a possibility of a rate hike at the next meeting, which is a positive factor for the JPY. The soft rhetoric of statements by the bank's leaders regarding, first of all, inflation will put pressure on the Japanese yen.

The BOJ continues to adhere to its ultra-soft monetary policy. As BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has repeatedly stated earlier, "it is appropriate for Japan to patiently continue the current loose monetary policy."

If the minutes contains unexpected or additional information regarding the monetary policy of the BOJ, then the volatility in JPY quotes will increase.

The level of influence on the markets is from low to high.

Wednesday 02 November

Germany. Index (PMI) of business activity in the manufacturing sector (final release)

This S&P Global report is an analysis of a survey of 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier shipments and inventory. Since purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date information on the situation in the company, this indicator is an important indicator of the state of the German economy as a whole. This sector of the economy forms a significant part of Germany's GDP. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 is considered negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro.

Previous values: 47.8, 49.1, 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6, 56.9, 58.4, 59.8, 57.4, 57.4, 57.8 , 58.4, 62.6.

The preliminary value was 45.7.

The level of influence on the markets (final release) is average.

Eurozone. Index (PMI) of business activity in the manufacturing sector (final release)

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (from S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the entire European economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 is considered negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Previous values: 48.4, 48.9, 49.8, 52.1, 54.6, 56.5, 58.2.

The preliminary value was 46.6.

The level of influence on the markets (final release) is average.

USA. ADP Private Sector Employment Report

ADP will present the monthly report on employment in the private sector of the US economy in October. This report usually has a strong impact on the market and dollar quotes, although, as a rule, there is no direct correlation with Non-Farm Payrolls. Strong data has a positive effect on the dollar; a decrease in the indicator can negatively affect it.

In any case, during the release of this report, there may be an increase in volatility in the market and, above all, in dollar quotes.

Previous values: 208,000 in September, 185,000 in August, 270,000 in July, 358,000 in May, 457,000 in April, 425,000 in March, 375,000 in February, 372,000 in January 2022.

The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.

USA. The Fed's interest rate decision. Fed Commentary on Monetary Policy

The level of interest rates is the most important factor in assessing the value of a currency. Most other economic indicators are only looked at by investors to predict how rates will move in the future.

The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates again by 75 bps (up to 4.00%) and, possibly, will announce plans for its further increase, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will explain the decision.

Market participants expect the US central bank to accelerate the tightening cycle of monetary policy. However, what will happen after the November meeting is not entirely clear.

During the announcement of the Fed's decision, volatility in the market usually increases sharply, primarily in the US stock market and in dollar quotes.

Powell's comments could affect both short-term and long-term USD trading. A more hawkish stance on the Fed's monetary policy is seen as positive and strengthens the US dollar, while a more cautious stance is seen as negative for the USD. Investors want to hear Powell's opinion on the Fed's plans for this year.

The level of influence on the markets is high.

USA. FOMC (Open Market Committee) press conference

The press conference of the Federal Open Market Committee is used by the Fed to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It examines the factors that influenced recent interest rate decisions and comments on the economic environment in which the decision was made. The FOMC press conference lasts about an hour and consists of two parts. The first part reads the ruling, followed by a series of questions from invited members of the press and answers from the leadership of the Fed. Almost always, the course of the Fed's press conference (after the meeting on monetary policy) is accompanied by an increase in volatility in the markets, primarily in dollar quotes and US stock market instruments.

The level of influence on the markets is high.

Thursday 03 November

A public holiday in Japan. Japanese banks and exchanges will be closed, and trading volumes during the Asian trading session will be reduced.

Australia. Trade balance

This indicator evaluates the difference in the volume of exports and imports. The excess of exports over imports leads to a trade surplus, which has a positive impact on the national currency quotes.

A decrease in the trade balance surplus may have a negative impact on the quotes of the national currency. Conversely, the growth of the trade surplus is a positive factor.

Previous values (in billion Australian dollars): 8.324 (August), 8.733 (July), 17.670 (June), 15.016 (May), 13.248 (April), 9.738 (March), 7.437 (February), 11.786 (January).

The level of influence on the markets is from low to medium.

UK. Composite PMI and Services PMI (final release)

The UK Composite PMI (from S&P Global) is an important indicator of the health of the UK economy. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast and the previous value, then the pound is likely to fall sharply in the short term. Data better than the forecast and the previous value will have a positive impact on the pound. At the same time, a result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the GBP, below 50 is considered negative for the GBP.

Previous values: 49.1, 49.6, 52.1, 53.7, 53.1, 58.2, 60.9, 59.9, 54.2 (in January 2022).

The preliminary score was 47.2.

The level of influence on the markets (final release) is from low to medium.

The PMI in the UK services sector (S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the British economy. The service sector employs the majority of the UK's working-age population and contributes approximately 75% of GDP. The most important part of the service industry is still financial services. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast and the previous value, then the pound is likely to fall sharply in the short term. Data better than the forecast and the previous value will have a positive impact on the pound. At the same time, a result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the GBP, below 50 is considered negative for the GBP.

Previous values: 50.0, 50.9, 52.6, 54.3, 53.4, 58.9, 62.6, 60.5, 54.1 (in January 2022).

The preliminary score was 47.5.

The level of influence on the markets (final release) is from low to medium.

UK. BoE interest rate decision. Minutes of the BoE meeting. The planned volume of asset purchases by the BoE. Monetary Policy Report

The level of interest rates is the most important factor in assessing the value of a currency. Most other economic indicators are only looked at by investors to predict how rates will move in the future.

It is possible that at this meeting the BoE will again raise the interest rate (up to 2.75% - 3.00%). However, despite the positive macro data coming out of the UK, the interest rate may remain at the same level of 2.25%, which could cause the pound to weaken.

The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the BoE contain information on the distribution of votes "for" and "against" the increase/decrease in the interest rate.

The report of the BoE on monetary policy, which will also be published at the same time, contains an assessment of the economic situation, the outlook for the economy and inflation.

The soft tone of the report will help weaken the pound. Conversely, the tough rhetoric of the report regarding inflation, which implies a further increase in the interest rate, will cause the pound to strengthen.

The level of influence on the markets is high.

USA. Unemployment claims

The US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the state of the US labor market with data on the number of primary and secondary claims for unemployment benefits. The state of the labor market (together with data on GDP and inflation) is a key indicator for the Fed in determining the parameters of its monetary policy.

The result is higher than expected and the growth of the indicator indicates the weakness of the labor market, which negatively affects the US dollar. The drop in the indicator and its low value is a sign of the recovery of the labor market and may have a short-term positive impact on the USD.

Initial and re-claims are expected to remain at pre-coronavirus lows, which is also positive for the dollar, indicating the stability of the US labor market.

Previous (weekly) figures for initial jobless claims: 217,000, 222,000, 228,000, 237,000, 245,000, 252,000, 248,000, 254,000, 261,000, 244,000, 235,000, 231,000, 232,000, 202,000, 211,000

Previous (weekly) values for repeated claims for unemployment benefits: 1,438,000, 1,473,000, 1,437,000, 1,412,000, 1,434,000, 1,430,000, 1,420,000, 1,368,000, 1,384,000, 1,333,000, 1,372,000, 1,324,000, 1,331,000, 1,309,000, 1,309,000

The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.

UK. Speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey

As head of the central bank, Bailey has more influence on the British pound than any other person in the UK government. Market participants will closely follow the progress of his speech to better understand the prospects for the monetary policy of the BoE.

Volatility during a speech by the head of the BoE usually rises sharply in the quotes of the pound and the FTSE London Stock Exchange index if it gives any hints of tightening or easing monetary policy of the BoE.

If Bailey does not touch upon the topic of monetary policy, then the market reaction to his speech will be weak.

The level of influence on the markets is from low to high.

USA. Indices (from S&P Global) business activity (PMI): composite and in the service sector of the economy (final release)

The monthly S&P Global report publishes (among other data) a composite PMI index and PMI indices in the manufacturing sector and in the services sector of the US economy, which are an important indicator of the state of these sectors and the US economy as a whole. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the USD, below 50 is considered negative for the US dollar. The data above the value of 50 indicate an acceleration of activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. If the indicator falls below the forecast and, especially, below the value of 50, the dollar may sharply weaken in the short term.

Previous values of the PMI indicator:

-composite 49.5, 44.6, 47.7, 52.3, 53.6, 56.0;

- in the service sector 49.3, 43.7, 47.3, 52.7, 53.4, 55.6.

The level of influence on the markets (final release) is medium. It is also lower than the similar report from ISM (American Institute of Supply Management)

USA. PMI in the services sector of the economy (from ISM, Institute of Supply Management)

The ISM Index is the result of a monthly survey of the largest US companies from 62 segments of the service sector, which accounts for almost 90% of US GDP and about 80% of the country's working citizens.

Previous values: 56.7 in September, 56.9 in August, 56.7 in July, 55.3 in June, 55.9 in May, 57.1 in April, 58.3 in March, 56.5 in February , 59.9 in January.

Forecast for October: 56.0.

This is a high figure. A result above 50 indicates an increase in activity and is seen as a positive factor for the USD. However, a stronger relative decline in the index could negatively impact the dollar in the short term.

The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.

Friday 04 November

Australia. RBA Commentary on Monetary Policy

This document, which is a report of a recent meeting of the RBA's management reviewing economic and financial conditions, provides valuable information on the bank's position on the outlook for the economy, the labor market and inflation - key factors that will determine the future of monetary policy.

If the RBA is positive about the state of the labor market in the country, GDP growth rates, and also shows a hawkish attitude towards the inflationary forecast in the economy, the markets regard this as a higher probability of a rate hike at the next meeting, which is a positive factor for the AUD. The soft rhetoric of statements and comments of the bank's leaders regarding, first of all, inflation will put pressure on the AUD.

Germany. Composite index (PMI) of business activity (final release)

This S&P Global report is an analysis of a survey of 800 purchasing managers that asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier shipments and inventory. Since purchasing managers have perhaps the most up-to-date information on the situation in the company, this indicator is an important indicator of the state of the German economy as a whole. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 is considered negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro.

Previous values: 45.7, 46.9, 48.1, 51.3, 53.7, 54.3, 55.1, 55.6, 53.8 (in January 2022).

The preliminary score was 44.1.

The level of influence on the markets (final release) is from low to medium.

Eurozone. Composite index (PMI) of business activity in the manufacturing sector (final release)

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (from S&P Global) is an important indicator of the state of the entire European economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 is considered negative for the euro. Data worse than the forecast and/or the previous value will have a negative impact on the euro. Previous values: 48.1, 48.9, 49.8, 52.1, 54.6, 56.5, 58.2.

The preliminary score was 47.1.

The level of influence on the markets (final release) is from low to medium.

USA. NFP (number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector) and unemployment rate

The central event of Friday will be the monthly report of the US Department of Labor with data on the main indicators of the country's labor market for October. Market participants are closely following this report, and market volatility during the period of its release usually rises sharply, especially in dollar quotes.

The growth of this report's figures (average hourly wages and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector) and the decrease in the unemployment rate are positive for the dollar.

Previous values (average hourly wages / new jobs created outside the agricultural sector / unemployment rate): +0.3% in September and August, +0.5% in July, +0.3% in June, May and April, +0.4% in March, 0% in February, +0.7% in January 2022 / 0.263 million in September, 0.315 million in August, +0.528 million in July, +0.372 million in June, +0.390 million in May, +0.428 million in April, +0.431 million, +0.678 million in February, +0.467 million in January 2022 / 3.5% in September, 3.7% in August, 3.5% in July, 3 .6% in June, May, April and March, 3.8% in February, 4.0% in January 2022.

Forecast for October: +0.3% / +0.200 million / 3.6%, respectively.

The indicators can be called, if not strong, then very positive. At the same time, unemployment remains at minimal levels. In any case, the market reaction to the US Department of Labor report may be unpredictable, because indicators of previous monthly reports can often be revised, and not always for the better.

With volatility traditionally expected to spike around the time this report is released, it may be best for conservative traders to stay out of the market during this time frame.

The level of influence on the markets is high.

Canada. Labor market data

As for the Fed, data on GDP, inflation and the labor market are decisive for the Bank of Canada when planning the parameters of monetary policy.

Despite the fact that unemployment rose in Canada during the coronavirus pandemic (from the usual 5.6-5.7% to 7.8% in March and already up to 13.7% in May 2020), in recent months there have also been some progress. The decline in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the CAD. If unemployment rises, the Canadian dollar will fall.

Previous unemployment rates: 5.2%, 5.4%, 4.9%, 4.9%, 5.1%, 5.2%, 5.3%, 5.5%, 6.5% ( in January 2022), which indicates an improvement in the situation in the Canadian labor market.

The level of influence on the markets is medium to high.