FX.co ★ Bitcoin: a bad sign. Medium-term holders send BTC to exchanges

Bitcoin sets unenviable records this week as large and small holders bear unrealized losses.

Data from network analytics company Glassnode shows that more than a third of BTC positions are held at a loss by long-term holders (LTH). This is a new all-time high.

Profitability has taken a hit in recent days, and network data confirms that even the most experienced investors are suffering.

When BTCUSD crashed to a two-year low of $15,600, investors began to take big losses, and at current levels of $17,200, the situation is not much better.

Glassnode shows that long-term holders (LTH) held 35.4% of the BTC supply (that's over 5.9 million coins) with a loss on November 9th. This figure fell by only 1% on November 10.

Short-term holders (STH) held another 17% of the offer at a loss, with STH gaining just 0.06% of the offer on Nov. 9.

The total number of profitable bitcoin addresses (50%) is currently at its lowest level since March 2020, when the collapse occurred due to COVID-19.

At the same time, analysts note that the 200-day moving average for bitcoin fell below the 200-week moving average for the first time. In other words, the price of the main cryptocurrency over the past 200 days in relative terms has been uniquely low compared to historical patterns.

The 200-week MA is a key bear market price line that bitcoin has consistently broken through this year.

Another warning sign

The on-chain data also points to another warning sign for bitcoin. The price of BTC could drop to $13K as medium-term holders of the main cryptocurrency tokens who have purchased them in the last 3-6 months send their assets to crypto exchanges. The bearish pressure intensified as the price dropped to $15,682 on Thursday.

The crypto market as a whole continues to be under pressure amid the FTX-Alameda crisis. FTX troubles have begun to spread, with crypto lender BlockFi suspending withdrawals and FTX US facing trading and withdrawal issues.

The FTX liquidity crisis is forcing mid-term bitcoin holders to send their tokens to crypto exchanges. In fact, the influx of crypto exchanges over the past 24 hours has exceeded 5,000 BTC.

The age ranges of BTC spent indicate two big spikes: over 1200 BTC on Thursday and over 3600 BTC on Friday. The total cost is 5,133.49 BTC. Bitcoin holders who have bought in the last 3-6 months by sending their BTC to exchanges are a bearish signal. Thus, the correction is likely to continue in the coming days.

It is worth noting that now the price of BTCUSD is in the 15,968 - 17,592 range. The rebound from its support upwards on Thursday was due to the US dollar's decline in response to stronger-than-expected inflation data. But the inability to overcome the resistance formed by the June lows will leave no chance and the price may reach $13,000 per BTC.

It is worth noting that now the price of BTCUSD is in the 15,968 - 17,592 range. The rebound from its support upwards on Thursday was due to the US dollar's decline in response to stronger-than-expected inflation data. But the inability to overcome the resistance formed by the June lows will leave no chance and the price may reach $13,000 per BTC.

As investors and whales began to transfer assets to exchanges, any upward movement in the US dollar index could lead to a drop in cryptocurrency prices. The recovery of quotes is now taking place at low volumes, which can lead to a collapse at any time.

Will Justin Sun save FTX?

Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX and Alameda are currently under investigation by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the Department of Justice, and now the CFTC. The Bahamas Securities Commission has decided to freeze the assets of FTX Digital Markets.

Tron founder Justin Sun revealed in an interview with Bloomberg on Friday that his team is currently working on due diligence on a potential FTX acquisition. The main motivation for this move is to resolve the FTX liquidity crisis and show unity in the crypto industry.

Justin Sun and Sam Bankman-Fried have reached an agreement to first allow FTX users to withdraw Tron tokens in order to increase liquidity and temporarily resolve the current liquidity crunch.

Sun is still discussing plans with FTX, including addressing the lack of liquidity and a potential acquisition. However, he does not want to give false hopes, as the process is not yet complete.

FTX investors and clients want clarity on FTX's status after the CEO announced the closure of Alameda Research. It hopes to raise over $9 billion in funding from investors and competitors.

Asked if he is considering debt, stock options or a full takeover, Sun said protecting the crypto industry is a priority. Cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen by more than 10% over the past few days after FTX announced a liquidity crisis and turned to Binance for help. However, Binance rejected the deal, citing poor management of user funds and alleged investigations by US authorities.

Sun said he may consider putting his money into a potential acquisition. However, the final decision will be taken after a full due diligence and assessment of all situations.

As for the funds FTX needs to recover from the liquidity crunch, he doesn't have an exact figure, but it will be in the billions. However, he warns that the crypto market could collapse if FTX files for bankruptcy, eroding the trust and confidence of institutional investors.