Analyzing trades on Thursday:
GBP/USD on M30 chart
GBP/USD quietly moved up on Thursday. Yesterday we said that the reason why the pound sharply rose was probably due to the British Supreme Court's decision not to hold an independence referendum in Scotland without Westminster approval. Thus, the referendum, which could potentially lead to the loss of one third of the British territory, will not take place in the near future. This is good news for the pound but at the same time the currency still grew over the last weeks even without the news. Wednesday's macroeconomic background hardly was the reason for the pair's growth by 200 points, and today there were no important and significant events or reports. Therefore, the fact that the pair grew today, though it was rather modest, perfectly shows that traders are still in a buying mood. Basically, the situation is logical, as the uptrend is still present, which is proved by the trend line. Thus, the pound has technical grounds for upward movement, while the euro does not...
GBP/USD on M5 chart
There were only three trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe. At first, the pair did not cross the 1.2079 level, but this sell signal turned out to be false. Then the pair failed to go in the right direction by even 20 pips, which would be enough to place the Stop Loss to Breakeven. Therefore, the short position was closed with a small loss, when the pair created a buy signal by settling above 1.2079. This signal should have worked too, but the price managed to rise to the nearest target at 1.2141. Therefore, you should have locked in the profit near this level, which was no less than 40 pips, and it surely covered the loss of the first trade. And so novice traders managed to avoid the cumulative loss and even managed to earn a couple of dozen pips.
Trading tips on Friday:
GBP/USD maintains an uptrend on the 30-minute time frame, which continues to be supported by the ascending trend line. We still believe that the pair will start falling in the next week or two, so we are waiting for this line to be crossed. However, till that day, we have to admit that the technical factors speak in favor of the pound's growth, though the fundamentals and macroeconomics do not always support the pound. On the 5-minute chart on Friday, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.1863-1.1877, 1.1950-1.1957, 1.1994, 1.2079, 1.2141, 1.2186-1.2205, 1.2245-1.2260, 1.2329-1.2337. As soon as the price passes 20 pips in the right direction, you should set a Stop Loss to breakeven. There are no important events or reports in the UK or the US. Nevertheless, we have a clear uptrend and the market will probably still buy the pair despite the lack of good reasons to do so.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took the signal to form (a rebound or a breakout of the level). The quicker it is formed, the stronger the signal is.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on a false signal (which did not trigger a Take Profit or test the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals at this level should be ignored.
3) When trading flat, a pair can form multiple false signals or not form them at all. In any case, it is better to stop trading at the first sign of a flat movement.
4) Trades should be opened in the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US trading hours when all positions must be closed manually.
5) You can trade using signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute time frame only amid strong volatility and a clear trend that should be confirmed by a trendline or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered support and resistance levels.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).
Important announcements and economic reports that can be found on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exiting the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.