FX.co ★ EUR/USD: rebound seems over

The EUR/USD pair is moving sideways on lower time frames and it seems undecided. It's trading at 1.1013 at the time of writing and it looks poised to come back down as the Dollar Index stays higher. Technically, after its strong drop, a rebound was natural.

Fundamentally, the Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate reported a 5.3% growth matching expectations, while Core CPI Flash Estimate registered a 5.5% growth, beating the 5.4% growth estimates. Unfortunately for the Euro, the German Retail Sales, German Import Prices, and Italian Prelim GDP came in worse than expected.

The greenback dragged the pair down again even though the Chicago PMI was reported at 42.8 points below 43.3 forecasts, but above 41.5 in the previous reporting period. Tomorrow, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending and the Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Rate, German Final Manufacturing PMI, and German Unemployment Change could be decisive.

EUR/USD 1.1005 As Downside Obstacle!

As you can see on the H1 chart, the rate rebounded and now it has found a strong supply at 1.1047. It has failed to stabilize above the weekly pivot point of 1.1040, confirming strong downside pressure.

Now, it's almost to reach the 1.1005 immediate low which represents a downside obstacle. Technically, the bias remains bearish as long as it stays below the downtrend line.

EUR/USD Forecast!

Dropping and closing below 1.1005 indicates a downside movement. This represents a new bearish signal.