FX.co ★ Bitcoin above $50k this week: is it possible?

Bitcoin started 2024 strongly, breaking out of the $40.5k-$43.4k fluctuation range in a bullish move. Subsequently, the cryptocurrency continued its upward trajectory, confidently breaking through the main resistance level at $45k. At one point, Bitcoin's price reached $45.8k, but bearish volumes later caused a decrease in the asset's price.

Bitcoin failed to hold the $45k level and consolidate above it at the end of the trading day on January 2nd. Despite this, the asset resumed its upward movement with the opening of Asian markets on January 3rd, indicating a stable buying position among investors. Bitcoin is a step away from testing the resistance level at $46k, but some analysts predict a much bolder rally in the cryptocurrency's price.

Matrixport Forecast

One of the leading Asian cryptocurrency trading firms stated in a recent report that Bitcoin prices could exceed $50k by the end of January. However, given the rapid rise of BTC in early January, analysts believe that the asset may reach $50k by the end of the current trading week. Recall that Matrixport had previously accurately predicted the cryptocurrency's price movement at the end of December.

The main argument of Matrixport analysts is the approaching approval of a spot BTC-ETF. The company expects an earlier approval of the spot product than in the period from January 8th to 10th. However, it is reported that the SEC is looking for reasons to postpone the announcement of the BTC-ETF application review results. It is also known that the regulator may notify issuers about the launch of the spot product by January 10th, making Matrixport's main argument somewhat shaky.

The undeniable reason for such a rapid rally in BTC/USD prices, according to analysts, is the falling volumes of open supply of cryptocurrency. As reported by Glassnode, more than 70% of BTC is not moving, creating a market shortage and, consequently, causing a rapid increase in the cryptocurrency's price. This factor is indeed worth considering, but at the same time, selling volumes remain high, as more than 60% of BTC investors are in profit and some are taking profits, forming a buy/sell balance.

BTC/USD Analysis

Regarding technical signals, BTC/USD made another upward surge and consolidated above $45k thanks to the activity of Asian investors. After a local dip, the stochastic oscillator resumed its upward movement, albeit in the overbought zone. After another attempt to retest $46k, Bitcoin may undergo a local correction lasting 1-2 daily candles.

Meanwhile, trading volumes and the activity of unique addresses in the asset's network remain high, indicating the continuation of a bullish trend. It's also important to note that during yesterday's Bitcoin rally, there was a significant increase in trading activity, which is a bullish signal. At this stage, the local resistance level for BTC/USD is the $45.8k-$46k area. For a successful retest and breakout, the cryptocurrency must finish the trading day above the $45k level, which has yet to be achieved so far.

Additionally, the asset is approaching a complex resistance zone, starting from the $46k level to the $48.7k mark. This area is saturated with liquidity and the upward movement of Bitcoin may pause here for a prolonged consolidation. The situation could be rectified by the approval of a spot BTC-ETF, but the number of analysts who believe this will be a "sell the news" event is growing.

Conclusion

The chances of Bitcoin testing and breaking the $50k level this trading week are minimal. Trading activity is only beginning to recover after the holidays, the market reaction to the BTC-ETF is unpredictable, and selling volumes are constantly growing as investors' profits increase. Additionally, the cryptocurrency is approaching a strong resistance zone, which will significantly complicate the achievement of such an ambitious target by January 7th.