FX.co ★ Forecast for USD/JPY on March 28, 2024

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair continues to consolidate between the levels of 150.80 and 151.95. Time plays on the dollar's side here, as the time spent on consolidation at the peaks increases the likelihood of further growth. In addition, the Marlin oscillator is moving to the right in the uptrend territory.

However, the bears have a chance to take control of the situation by pushing the price below the level of 150.80. Today, there is a reason for this - the final estimate of US GDP numbers for Q4. However, this report could also support the dollar, so the price has an equal chance of breaking above the resistance at 151.95. Consolidation above this level will open up the target of 154.25.

If the market suddenly feels the risk of such growth prospects, as the Bank of Japan recently warned of currency intervention, then the yen has a chance to stay in the current range, waiting for more significant events to break upwards. The USD/JPY pair has the unique ability to develop a narrow-range, sideways trend for several months.

However, if the yen consolidates below the level of 150.80, it may reach 149.72. Next, the price will have to deal with the MACD line.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen below the balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is in the downtrend territory. These circumstances increase the probability of an attempt to break below the support at 150.80, towards which the MACD line is approaching. Therefore, overcoming the support at 150.80, according to the data from the two timeframes, has a slightly higher probability than breaking through 151.95.