FX.co ★ USD/CAD H1 & H4 analysis for November 07, 2013

General overview for 07/11/2013 07:45 CET

The grey rectangle DEMAND BREAKTHROUGH ZONE is still not broken amid the price has done shorter wave X brown than I expected.
There are two main scenarios now, labeled as main and alternate count:
SCENARIO #1 - Main Count - It indicates one more wave to the downside to complete wave Y brown of wave B green. As long as grey rectangle DEMAND BREAKTHROUGH ZONE is not broken, new low is expected as per older charts.
SCENARIO #2 - Alternate Count - It indicates wave B green has been done already with the low at 1.0395 in place and now the upward wave progression is unfolding. The grey rectangle DEMAND BREAKTHROUGH ZONE must be broken to the upside before new low is made to confirm the scenario.
Please notice the price is below Daily Pivot level at 1.0428 and below Intraday Resistance at 1.0423 as well. This might be first clue of a Main Count to be taken seriously and to expect more downside first.

Support/Resistance:

1.0375 - WS1

1.0378 - 127%Fibo

1.0380 - DS2

1.0390 - 1.0396 - SUPPLY BREAKTHROUGH ZONE

1.0400 - DS1

1.0409 - Intraday Support

1.0423 - Intraday Resistance

1.0428 - Daily Pivot

1.0435 - Weekly Pivot

1.0446 - DR1

1.0460 - 1.0465 - DEMAND BREAKTHROUGH ZONE | WR1 |

Trading recommendations:

The current bias is to the downside as wave Y brown of a higher degree must be finished before immediate trend up would resume, so short positions are in favour as long as Daily and Weekly Pivots are not broken. So the area between 1.0423 to 1.0435 is a Sell Zone with SL above 1.0445 and potential TP1 at 1.0375 and TP2 at 1.0350.