FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on July 16, 2024

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro failed to consolidate above the target level of 1.0905, closing the day down by 12 pips. The divergence with the Marlin oscillator increased a bit. At least, we can expect a correction, and in the main scenario, we are waiting for a trend reversal into a medium-term decline, below 1.0595.

The first target is the support level of 1.0788, which the MACD line is approaching. A complex divergence has formed on the 4-hour chart. It seems to help the price overcome the support of the MACD line at 1.0866.

Today, the U.S. retail sales report for June will be released, which is expected to contract by 0.2%. But last week the CPI dropped 0.1% from May, so if the retail sales increases by even 0.1%, it will mean that there is no recession when accounting for inflation, and this will be a positive signal for the dollar.