FX.co ★ EUR/USD Forecast for February 4, 2025

Yesterday evening, Mexico agreed to deploy 10,000 soldiers to its border with the U.S. to curb illegal migration. In response, Trump decided to postpone the introduction of tariffs for one month, during which the U.S. and Mexico will engage in negotiations. It was later revealed that Canada would implement similar measures, matching Mexico's troop numbers for border security and allocating $1.3 billion for this effort.

As a result, all gaps from Monday's market opening have been closed, including in the S&P 500. However, the gap in the euro remains unclosed, lacking 18 pips. The upward movement halted precisely at the target level of 1.0350 and at the MACD line on the daily scale.

The Marlin oscillator remains in bearish territory, complicating the final breakthrough of the price above the balance indicator line.

Today, the U.S. will release data on factory orders for December, with forecasts anticipating a decline of 0.7% following a 0.4% drop in November. This data could help the euro close the remaining gap.

On the four-hour chart, the price is slightly retreating from the target level of 1.0350. The Marlin oscillator has not yet reached the threshold of the bullish trend zone, but it still maintains the potential for a third consecutive attempt (indicated by check marks) to close the gap.