FX.co ★ GBP/USD Forecast for May 22, 2025

Yesterday's inflation data for April in the UK surprised market participants. Core CPI jumped from 3.4% y/y to 3.8% y/y versus an expected 3.6% y/y, while headline CPI reached 3.5% y/y compared to March's 2.6% and the forecast of 3.3%. The monthly increase stood at 1.2%. These figures are unlikely to leave the Bank of England indifferent, and investors have pushed the yield on 5-year government bonds up from 4.15% to 4.26% by this morning. The British pound ended the day up by 26 pips.

The price is breaking through the 1.3433 resistance level on the daily chart. It's evident that the pound is targeting the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.3565, and then the key target at 1.3635 — the four-week resistance from January 2022. The Marlin oscillator continues to rise in positive territory.

On the H4 chart, the price must firmly consolidate above the 1.3433 level. If it does, the Marlin oscillator will break out of its current range to the upside and provide even stronger support for further price growth.