FX.co ★ EUR/USD Forecast for July 16, 2025

Yesterday's U.S. inflation data strengthened the dollar (U6 index) by 0.56%. The CPI for June rose from 2.4% y/y to 2.7% y/y, while core CPI came in at 2.9% y/y, up from 2.8% y/y in May.

The price reached the June 12–16 highs and is showing a slight correction from that area this morning. However, the bearish target level remains at 1.1535—the region of the upper shadows from April 21–22. The daily balance line is also located at that level, so a correctional rebound is expected from there.

On the four-hour chart, yesterday's decline started from the 1.1692 level, making a return to that zone unlikely. The Marlin oscillator remains in the bearish territory. A break below yesterday's low at 1.1593 would signal a continuation of the downward movement.