FX.co ★ Forecast for USD/CAD as of October 1, 2025

The Canadian dollar continues to weaken against the U.S. dollar, with no notable fluctuations, largely due to a relatively steady decline in oil prices (yesterday, -1.50%). The Marlin oscillator has settled in positive territory and is poised to turn upward. A breakout above the resistance level of 1.3958 (the high from September 26) opens the way to the next target at 1.4060.

The first sign of a potential alternative (bearish) scenario for the Canadian dollar would be a decline below the 1.3890 level (high from September 11 and yesterday's low). However, a more significant signal would be a break below the 1.3860 level, which would open the path toward 1.3810.

On the H4 (4-hour) chart, the price bounced upward yesterday from the balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory but would enter the positive zone once the price reaches 1.3958. The bearish signal level of 1.3890 is also reinforced by the MACD line, adding strength to that key level.