FX.co ★ USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on February 9th (U.S. Session)

Trade analysis and trading tips for the Japanese yen

A test of the 156.70 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the dollar. However, unfortunately, the pair did not move higher afterward.

Given that the market has fully priced in Takaichi's victory in the snap elections and the lack of significant U.S. macroeconomic data in the second half of the day, the focus shifts to statements from Federal Reserve officials. Particular attention will be paid to speeches by Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic, as their remarks could have a meaningful impact on the U.S. dollar's performance against the Japanese yen. Investors will carefully analyze each of their statements in search of signals regarding future monetary policy.

A dovish stance by policymakers—characterized by more cautious or even downward assessments of inflation and economic growth—could strengthen market expectations for a possible interest rate cut in the near future. As a result, the dollar would become less attractive to investors, while the yen would receive support. A hawkish stance from Fed officials would likely lead to a rise in USD/JPY, similar to the move observed last week.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the price reaches the entry level around 156.77 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 157.21 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.21, I plan to exit long positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move from that level). Growth in the pair today can be expected following a hawkish stance from Fed officials.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 156.43 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 156.77 and 157.21 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break and retest the 156.43 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.88 level, where I plan to exit sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of a dovish tone from policymakers.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 156.77 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 156.43 and 155.88 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be locked in manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be locked in manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.