FX.co ★ What to Pay Attention to on March 6? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are quite a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, including some truly important ones. First and foremost, beginner traders should pay attention to the Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate reports from the US. Recall that these reports may show weak values, but values above or better than forecasts could lead to a renewed rise in the dollar. Additionally, reports on retail sales and wages will be released in the US, which have less impact on the dollar's exchange rate. In the Eurozone, a fourth-quarter GDP report will be published in its third estimate, unlikely to surprise the market or provoke a significant reaction.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Friday, another speech by Christine Lagarde, along with several other representatives from the ECB and the Fed, can be highlighted. However, the market's attention is currently focused on the Middle East, rather than on central banks. In our view, the US labor market and inflation data for January were, at the very least, contradictory. Therefore, we cannot be certain that the Fed will not resume its monetary policy easing cycle in the near future. In the Eurozone, inflation had dropped to 1.7% but has now risen back to 1.9%. Thus, we do not expect any monetary policy easing measures from the ECB at this time. Nevertheless, the Fed's more dovish stance (compared to the ECB) is currently having no impact on the dollar's exchange rate.

General Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, the market may experience any movement, as events in the Middle East continue to shake it. Additionally, important reports will be published in the US today, which will not go unnoticed. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1584-1.1591, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3319-1.3331. We still see no grounds for a strong and prolonged rise in the American currency; however, the war in the Middle East may continue to pull both pairs down.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat trend, it is best to stop trading.
4. Trading deals are to be opened during the period between the start of the European session and the mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.