FX.co ★ Oil Retains All Chances for Growth

Today, oil prices rose again, interrupting the short-term downward trend observed for the first time in nearly 7 days. The main catalyst for this increase was the escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf, where Iran has intensified its actions against the region's energy infrastructure. These attacks raise serious concerns about the stability of crude oil supplies and transit, which inevitably affects market prices.

According to media reports, operations at the Shah field in the United Arab Emirates have been halted, and the Iraqi oil field and key UAE port have once again come under fire from Iranian drones and missiles.

It's important to note that tension in one of the world's key oil-producing regions always significantly influences the dynamics of energy resource prices. Iran, as a major oil producer, can substantially affect the global supply-demand balance through its actions. An increase in attacks on infrastructure facilities, such as pipelines, refineries, or shipping terminals, can not only lead to a direct reduction in production but also pose risks to maritime transportation, thereby automatically raising insurance premiums and complicating logistics.

Against this backdrop, Brent crude oil approached $105 per barrel after falling 2.8% on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil is trading around $98.

In response to a question posed in the Oval Office about whether the war could end this week, President Donald Trump stated yesterday: "I don't think so, but it will happen soon." President Trump again threatened to expand strikes on Kharg Island, targeting oil infrastructure after not affecting energy assets in this key Iranian export center over the weekend. He also mentioned that Washington is conducting strikes to reduce threats to commercial shipping through the Hormuz Strait, and has once again reached out to other countries for assistance in ensuring the unhindered passage of vessels.

On Monday, Trump stated that he had contacted China—among the countries he had asked for support in the Hormuz conflict—to request a one-month postponement of the summit with his counterpart, Xi Jinping, saying that it was important for him to remain in Washington to manage the war with Iran.

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the UAE and Kuwait have further reduced oil production.

Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $100.40. This will allow them to target $106.83, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be $113.36. If oil prices fall, bears will attempt to take control over $92.54. If they succeed, breaching this range will deliver a severe blow to the bulls' positions and may push oil down to a low of $86.67, with a prospect of reaching $81.38.