FX.co ★ Price of silence, Trump

The annual White House Correspondents' Association dinner — traditionally the social event of the year in political Washington — was disrupted. In the middle of the event, attended by Donald Trump and his wife and virtually the entire US administration leadership, an unknown assailant opened fire inside the hotel. Thanks to the swift response of law enforcement, the attacker was detained on the spot. The lone casualty was a US Secret Service agent. A bullet struck his chest, but, according to the president, the agent's life was saved by his body armor.

Instead of expressing the usual concern in such circumstances, Donald Trump used the incident to reinforce his political narrative. Speaking to reporters at the White House, he advanced the theory that assassination attempts are a kind of "certificate of quality" for a national leader. "They try to kill those presidents who have the greatest influence on the country. That happens because we do a lot of work," Trump said. In effect, the president placed himself in the same line as the most consequential figures in American history whose influence provoked equally radical resistance.

Despite the seriousness of the situation, Trump urged citizens to "resolve disagreements peacefully," while praising the Secret Service for "fantastic, brave and fast" work. On his social media Truth Social, he kept an upbeat, almost celebratory tone, calling the evening "amazing" despite the shooting and expressing confidence that law enforcement would quickly determine the shooter's motives. Notably, Trump already vowed to "do it all again," signaling that no threat will force him to give up public events or his accustomed lifestyle.

However, behind this optimism lies a worrying reality: tensions in American society have reached the point where even the most heavily guarded events in the capital are no longer safe. While Trump dons the mantle of a "targeted president," security services are preparing to sharply increase protective measures ahead of the summer's political events. The situation in the Middle East has reached a level of military concentration not seen since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that three carrier strike groups are currently deployed and operating in the same waters:

• USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72)
• USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78)
• USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77)

This represents the presence of more than 200 modern combat aircraft and over 15,000 military personnel. The US president is betting that such a powerful physical presence will compel Tehran to make the first move. But so far, that "first call" has not come, and the three carriers are effectively guarding a closed strait. Despite enormous US pressure, Iran appears to be the beneficiary. The current "fragile ceasefire" favors Tehran more than anyone else:

• since April 8, Iranian territory has not been subjected to massive strikes;
• control over the Strait of Hormuz is a lever of pressure on the global economy.

Tehran gains political advantages without suffering material losses, while strategically wearing down the US through the exhausting deployment of its fleet. The center of gravity of the conflict has shifted: the world now debates not how many plants Iran has lost but how many trillions the global economy will lose if the blockade continues.

Why would Iran want peace talks?

Yet it seems even this uncertain situation can sustain optimism on Wall Street. On the one hand, the S&P 500 is pushing to new record highs, and Bitcoin has recovered to two-month peaks. On the other hand, everyone understands that hostilities could resume at any second. Oil remains the market's "shadow king": even a rapid agreement that pushes the price to $80 per barrel would force the Federal Reserve, the ECB and other major central banks to fear secondary inflation shocks. Next week promises to be the busiest of 2026 — a marathon of central bank meetings is scheduled, five sessions that will determine whether regulators are ready to "tolerate" inflation in order to support growth.

But the longer destabilization in the Persian Gulf continues, the more the global economy's buffer of resilience erodes. We are witnessing not just higher prices but the systemic dismantling of industrial potential in key importing countries, most of which are hostile to Tehran. This process triggers a destructive domino effect in financial markets:

• tightened financial conditions and pressure on equities;
• destabilization of the bond market, especially long-dated debt;
• a refinancing crisis forcing governments and corporations to fight for survival amid liquidity shortages.

Perhaps the most damaging blow Iran has dealt is to Washington's political prestige. For decades, Gulf monarchies "bought" security from the US, believing American bases and aircraft carriers guaranteed protection from any attack. Iran has destroyed that illusion. Ignoring the "unwritten rules" and delivering a powerful asymmetric strike on regional infrastructure have left US allies with an awkward question: "What did they spend billions on?" If three US carriers cannot ensure tankers' free passage, the old security architecture is dead. This leads to the fragmentation of alliances — NATO, as once known, no longer exists; each regional actor must now fend for itself.

Iran's president has already set conditions: there will be no talks until the US lifts all obstacles, including the naval blockade. By prolonging the conflict, Iran gains several indirect but critically important advantages:

• the bulk of US forces are tied up in the Gulf;
• the world pays an "insurance premium" for risk in the region;
• global trade rules are being reshaped in favor of those who can control risk;
• groups loyal to Tehran become key local regulators of stability.

The end of the era of cheap reserves?

The ninth week of the Hormuz blockade confirmed traders' worst fears: the loss of a billion barrels of oil has become an unavoidable reality. That volume is twice the size of all emergency reserves the largest economies released to the market in an attempt to douse the fire at the end of February. While strategic stocks allowed authorities to maintain a facade of stability, the "safety buffer" is being depleted at an alarming rate. Where petrochemical giants in Asia once absorbed the shock, the crisis is now spilling over into the everyday lives of Western consumers. These are no longer just figures in reports — they represent forced adaptation, when the world consumes less simply because it can no longer afford more.

The "wave effect" has hit sectors that ensure global mobility the hardest. Aviation, barely recovered from past crises, is grounded again:

• Lufthansa has removed 20,000 flights from its summer schedule;
• KLM is canceling dozens of flights due to prohibitive jet fuel costs;
• Asian carriers such as Air New Zealand have already cut route networks, affecting tens of thousands of passengers.

But the real threat lies in the middle-distillates segment. Diesel fuel, the lifeblood of global logistics, has become scarce. In Europe, diesel prices are matching 2022 records, exceeding $200 per barrel. In India, fleet owners are preparing for enforced rationing. Germany has already halved its growth forecasts, and the IMF has downgraded global estimates, naming the war in Iran as the main reason. Strategists warn that when the crisis finally paralyzes diesel transport, everyone will feel it — from construction sites to supermarket shelves.

"If the strait is not opened within three months, the situation will evolve into a macroeconomic problem — the world will be on the brink of a recession," says Frederic Lasser, head of research at Gunvor. The European Central Bank models scenarios in which Brent crude soars to $145 per barrel, and analysts at FGE NexantECA do not rule out a jump to $154 this quarter. In the most extreme models, where only price can balance collapsed supply, a barrel could reach surreal levels of $250 or even $300. Against that backdrop, the current $105 looks like a calm before the real storm.

Fuel deadlock — America is no exception

Even the United States, despite vast domestic resources, is beginning to feel the chill of the energy crisis. United Airlines has already trimmed its capacity growth plans by 5%, forecasting stagnation through the end of 2026. Consumer reaction is even more telling: Barclays Plc data show that when pump prices exceed $4 per gallon, US gasoline consumption falls by 5%. This is the first clear signal that "demand destruction" has reached the very heart of the American economy. Global regulators tried to buy time by releasing an unprecedented 400 million barrels from reserves. But that "analgesic" effect is wearing off. As Russell Hardy of Vitol Group put it, the world "has borrowed oil from the future," and now it must pay that debt with a severe recession.

At the same time, Washington is taking steps against Iran — from canceling visas for Iranians to freezing $344 million in cryptocurrency linked to Iranian wallets. Against this worrying backdrop, a significant personnel development occurred in Washington: the Department of Justice dropped the investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. That reduces some political pressure within the financial system, allowing the regulator to focus on fighting inflation without the shadow of legal battles.

And Wall Street, despite the war's shadow, keeps celebrating the tech revolution. Nvidia's shares closed at a record high, pushing the company's market cap above an astonishing $5 trillion. The US stock market shows remarkable resilience, as if trying to filter out Middle East headlines. Still, the market faces a "parade of giants" this week:

• Tuesday — Novartis, Barclays, Spotify, Coca-Cola, American Tower, Booking, Starbucks, Visa, Robinhood, T-Mobile US
• Wednesday — UBS, Yum! Brands, AbbVie, Biogen, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, QUALCOMM, Amazon, eBay, Ford
• Thursday — Cigna, Merck & Company, Eli Lilly, ConocoPhillips, Mastercard, Amgen, Reddit, Rivian, Roblox, Roku, Twilio, Apple
• Friday — Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Dominion Energy, Moderna

If tech leaders confirm their strength, the market may continue to ignore geopolitics for some time, driving the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to new highs. But if results from Alphabet or Microsoft disappoint investors, the "war premium" and high Fed rates will instantly dominate the narrative, turning the recent gains into an unwarranted euphoria.

27 April

27 April, 04:30 / China / Total industrial profit (Mar) / prev.: 0.6% / actual: 15.2% / forecast: 18.0% / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down China's industrial sector posted a powerful start to 2026: corporate profits jumped 15.2% year-on-year — the best start to a year since 2018 (excluding the anomalous post-pandemic 2021). The private sector deserves special attention, with profits surging 37.2%, and high-tech manufacturing — computers and electronics — showing a phenomenal 200% profit increase. Although the data were collected before the main peak of oil shocks from the Middle East conflict, they confirm strong underlying demand. If the March reading reaches the forecast 18.0%, this would strengthen the yuan and push Brent prices higher.

27 April, 08:00 / Japan / Leading Economic Index (Feb) / prev.: 110.5 / actual: 112.1 / forecast: 112.4 / USD/JPY – down

Japan's leading economic index rose to 112.1 in February — the highest since August 2022. The positive momentum is supported by a resilient labour market:

• unemployment fell to 2.6%
• consumer confidence reached 2019 levels Inflation concerns have temporarily eased due to large government support measures from Tokyo. If the final reading reaches the forecast 112.4, it will confirm optimistic prospects for the Japanese economy and strengthen the yen.

27 April, 09:00 / Germany / GfK consumer climate (May, preliminary) / prev.: -24.8 / actual: -28.0 / forecast: -29.5 / EUR/USD – up

German consumers are sinking into deep gloom — the GfK index fell to -28 in April. Households seriously fear that the conflict with Iran will trigger uncontrolled rises in energy prices and finally bury hopes of a recovery. Income expectations are negative (-6.3), and purchasing propensity keeps declining. Savings propensity remains high, indicating tight belt behaviour. Despite the bleak backdrop, if the indicator comes in better than the extreme forecast of -29.5, it could prompt a technical strengthening of the euro.

27 April, 09:00 / United Kingdom / CBI retail sales balance (Apr) / prev.: -43 / actual: -52 / forecast: -48 / GBP/USD – up

UK retail signals real distress. The CBI retail sales balance plunged to -50 in March — a level comparable to early 2020 lockdowns. This result was much worse than market expectations and historical norms. Consumers have almost stopped spending on non-essentials amid economic uncertainty. If April does not show a rebound and stays near the forecast -48, this will create volatility and may trigger short covering that could strengthen the pound.

27 April, 17:30 / USA / Texas Manufacturing Business Activity Index (Apr) / prev.: 0.2 / actual: -0.2 / forecast: -0.8 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

Manufacturing activity in Texas essentially stalled at -0.2 in March 2026. A worrying signal was the jump in the uncertainty index to a one-year high (26.0). Hiring has practically stopped, and working hours are falling. Although manufacturers still hope for improvement over the next six months, current stagnation and slowing wage growth weigh on the sector. If the April index falls to the forecast -0.8, it would weaken the dollar.

28 April

28 April, 02:01 / United Kingdom / Retail price inflation (Apr) / prev.: 1.1% / actual: 1.2% / forecast: 1.5% / GBP/USD – up

UK retail price inflation rose moderately to 1.2% year-on-year in March 2026. Although below the market forecast of 1.3%, it marks an uptick from February's 1.1%. The Middle East conflict is beginning to pressure supply chains and push up goods prices. Food price inflation cooled slightly to 3.4% in March. Helen Dickinson of the British Retail Consortium noted retailers are trying to soften the blow via supplier measures, but further price rises are expected from external shocks. If the March reading reaches the forecast 1.5%, the pound would likely strengthen.

28 April / Japan / Job?to?applicant ratio (Mar) / prev.: 1.18 / actual: 1.19 / forecast: 1.18 / USD/JPY – down

Japan's labour market remains resilient: the jobs-to-applicants ratio rose to 1.19 in February 2026, well above the long-term average (0.92), indicating a persistent labour shortage and supporting domestic consumption. The historic context shows values remain high versus the crisis lows of 2009. This dynamic is positive for the yen.

28 April, 06:00, 09:30 / Japan / Bank of Japan interest rate decision, press conference / prev.: 0.75% / actual: 0.75% / forecast: 0.75% / USD/JPY – volatile

At its March meeting, the BoJ kept the short-term policy rate at 0.75% — the highest since 1995. The decision was passed by majority (8–1), with Hajime Takata voting for a more aggressive move to 1%. The regulator aligned its stance cautiously with the Fed, noting a moderate domestic recovery. However, escalation in the Middle East remains the key risk. The board said it stands ready to tighten further if inflationary and economic projections materialize. The uncertainty around the future monetary trajectory amid rising oil prices will keep the yen volatile.

28 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Median inflation expectations (Mar) / prev.: 2.6% / actual: 2.5% / forecast: 2.9% / EUR/USD – up

Median one-year inflation expectations in the eurozone eased to 2.5% — a low since autumn 2024. Three-year expectations also adjusted to 2.5%, while five-year expectations remain stable. Despite the cooling of short-term expectations, consumers expect spending to rise to 3.5%, outpacing expected nominal income growth (1.2%). The economic backdrop is less pessimistic, and unemployment forecasts eased to 10.8%. If expectations swing back to the forecast 2.9% due to the energy crisis, the euro would strengthen.

28 April, 15:15 / USA / ADP private sector employment change (weekly) / prev.: 40.25k / actual: 54.75k / forecast: — / USDX – volatile

Private sector hiring in the US recorded a new historical run rate in ADP data: on average, 54,750 jobs per week — the fifth consecutive week of improvement, highlighting exceptional labour market strength in 2026. The sizable acceleration from 40.25k underscores the economy's adaptability. This strong dynamic, lacking a clear market consensus, will keep the dollar index highly volatile.

28 April, 16:00 / USA / S&P Cotality Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (Feb) / prev.: 1.4% / actual: 1.2% / forecast: 1.0% / USDX – down

Year-on-year house price growth in the US slowed to 1.2% in January 2026 — the weakest reading since July 2023. The housing market continues to cool:

* price growth has lagged consumer inflation for eight consecutive months

* real housing affordability is declining

Despite local gains (New York +4.9%, Chicago +4.6%), the national trend is stagnation. If February falls to the forecast 1.0%, the dollar would weaken.

28 April, 17:00 / US / Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Apr) / prev.: 91.0 / actual: 91.8 / forecast: 89.5 / USDX – down

US consumer confidence rose to 91.8 in April, beating expectations. Despite improved labour and business conditions assessments, the index remains below the 20-year average (93). In 2026, rising household confidence often signals a higher risk appetite, prompting currency sales into stocks. If the final reading drops to 89.5 or below, it would weaken the dollar.

28 April, 17:00 / USA / Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) / prev.: -10 / actual: 0 / forecast: -4 / USDX – down

Manufacturing activity in the Richmond Fed district came out of contraction in March, reaching 0 — the first non-negative reading in a year despite high energy costs from the Middle East war. The improvement was driven by a recovery in new orders (+4) and reduced layoffs. However, expected shipments growth is slowing. If the April index settles at the forecast -4, the dollar would weaken.

28 April, 23:30 / US / API crude oil stocks (weekly) / prev.: 6.1 mln bbl / actual: -4.4 mln bbl / forecast: — / Brent – volatile

API data showed a sharp drawdown in US crude inventories of 4.4 million barrels for the week. Gasoline and distillate stocks also plunged (-5.16 mln and -4.59 mln, respectively) — the largest declines in six months. Such deep fuel inventory draws amid geopolitical uncertainty add volatility to Brent.

29 April

29 April, 04:30 / Australia / Headline CPI (Mar) / prev.: 3.8% / actual: 3.7% / forecast: 4.7% / AUD/USD – up

Australia's headline inflation slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in February 2026, below expectations. The decline was driven by a 7.2% fall in fuel prices before the active phase of the Middle East conflict and slower rises in education and communications costs. Housing inflation remains dangerously high (+7.3%), keeping the overall rate above the RBA target (2–3%). If March inflation jumps to the forecast 4.7% amid fresh energy shocks, the Australian dollar would strengthen.

29 April, 08:00 / Japan / Housing construction volume (Mar) / prev.: -0.4% / actual: -4.9% / forecast: -28.5% / USD/JPY – up

Japan's housing construction volume fell 4.9% year-on-year in February 2026, notably worse than January's -0.4%. This is the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the sharpest drop since last November amid rising material costs and weak demand. Declines were broad:

• housing for sale -8.8%
• "two-by-four" homes -7.7%
• owner-occupied housing -4.7% (vs. +6.6% a month earlier)
• Although the result was far better than the catastrophic forecast of -28.5%, the sector's weakness weighs on the yen.

29 April, 08:00 / Japan / Construction orders (Mar) / prev.: 5.7% / actual: 42.7% / forecast: 33.0% / USD/JPY – up

New construction orders in Japan surged 42.7% year-on-year in February 2026, massively exceeding the long-term average (3.08%) and market expectations. This spike likely reflects large infrastructure or commercial projects. Despite the overall economic context, the oversized beat on orders combined with other factors contributes to yen weakness.

29 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI, Apr) / prev.: 98.2 / actual: 96.6 / forecast: 95.5 / EUR/USD – down

The eurozone ESI fell to 96.6 in March 2026. The main driver of pessimism was the Middle East conflict, pushing inflation fears to the highest since July 2022. Consumer confidence plunged to -16.3, and retailers' sentiment worsened to -7.2. While manufacturing shows slight improvement, firms' pricing intentions jumped 7.4 points to 19.7, signalling renewed cost pressure. Regionally, the steepest ESI declines were in France and Spain; Germany remained relatively stable. The drop in overall economic confidence pressures the euro.

29 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Consumer expectations on price dynamics (Apr) / prev.: 26.2 / actual: 43.4 / forecast: 48.0 / EUR/USD – up

Consumers' expectations for price dynamics over the next 12 months in March soared to 43.4 — the highest since July 2022 and nearly double the historical average (24.55). The sharp rise from February's 26.2 reflects a reaction to geopolitical instability and rising cost of living. This surge increases pressure on the ECB to keep policy tight, which supports the euro.

29 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Industrial confidence (Apr) / prev.: -7.2 / actual: -7.0 / forecast: -8.0 / EUR/USD – down

Industrial confidence edged up to -7.0 in March 2026, beating forecasts. Producers' optimism is supported by improved order books (including export orders) and past output volumes. However, optimism is offset by weak production expectations and sharply higher pricing intentions. Three-year high pricing intentions reflect cost pressures from the Middle East conflict. The mix of weak output prospects and high input inflation weighs on the euro.

29 April, 15:00 / Germany / Headline CPI (Apr) / prev.: 1.9% / actual: 2.7% / forecast: 3.0% / EUR/USD – up

German consumer inflation accelerated to 2.7% year-on-year in March 2026, the highest since early 2024. The main trigger was the energy shock:

• energy prices +7.2%
• fuel oil +44.4%
• motor fuel +20%

Services inflation rose to 3.2% amid higher social services and transport costs. Food dynamics were mixed: overall food inflation slowed to 0.9% due to cheaper oils (-17.6%), while confectionery prices rose 6.1%. Core inflation fell to 2.3%. A faster rise in the headline CPI would strengthen the euro.

29 April, 15:30 / US / Building permits (Feb) / prev.: 1.455 mln / actual: 1.386 mln / forecast: 1.360 mln / USDX – down

US building permits fell 4.7% year-on-year to 1.386 million in January 2026, the lowest since August last year.

• The main hit was in multi-family permits (-12.4%)
• Single-family permits dipped slightly (-0.6%)
• Regional weakness was pronounced in the West (-13.8%) and Northeast (-8.4%), partially offset by Midwest gains (+7.6%). Despite numbers beating pessimistic forecasts, the sector slowdown weighs on the dollar.

29 April, 15:30 / US / Durable goods orders (Feb) / prev.: -0.5% / actual: -1.4% / forecast: 0.5% / USDX – up

New orders for durable goods fell 1.4% year-on-year to $315.5 billion in February 2026 — the third consecutive monthly decline, driven mainly by:

• weakness in transportation (-5.4%)
• a collapse in non-defense aircraft orders (-28.6%)
• Excluding transportation, orders for primary metals and machinery rose 2.2% and 1.5%, respectively. The gap between weak actuals and optimistic analyst forecasts (+0.5%) creates market tension and could temporarily strengthen the dollar.

29 April, 15:30 / US / Housing starts (Feb) / prev.: 4.8% / actual: 7.2% / forecast: -5.2% / USDX – down

US housing starts jumped 7.2% year-on-year to 1.487 million in January 2026, far exceeding forecasts of a steep sector decline. The growth rate greatly outpaced the long-run average (0.32%), confirming surprising resilience in residential construction and boosting risk appetite, which weakens the dollar.

29 April, 16:45, 17:30 / Canada / Bank of Canada rate decision, press conference / prev.: 2.25% / actual: 2.25% / forecast: 2.25% / USD/CAD – volatile

The Bank of Canada kept the policy rate at 2.25% at its March meeting, acknowledging a GDP slowdown (-0.6% q/q in Q4) and warning that the Middle East war creates critical uncertainty for energy prices. The Governing Council noted inflation may rise in the coming months due to logistics costs, leaving policy options open. Combined with geopolitical risk, this will keep the Canadian dollar highly volatile.

29 April, 17:30 / USA / EIA crude oil inventories (weekly) / prev.: -0.913 mln bbl / actual: 1.925 mln bbl / forecast: -2.825 mln bbl / Brent – up

EIA data showed an unexpected increase in US crude stocks of 1.925 million barrels, versus expectations of a large draw. The rise was supported by higher net crude imports (+1.21 mln b/d) and a small build at Cushing. Refinery activity eased, and utilisation fell 0.5 pp. However, the report revealed a deep deficit in refined products: gasoline and distillate stocks plunged by 4.6 mln and 3.4 mln barrels respectively, well beyond forecasts. Severe depletion of fuel inventories amid geopolitical risk will support higher Brent prices.

29 April, 21:00, 21:30 / US / Federal Reserve interest rate decision, press conference / prev.: 3.75% / actual: 3.75% / forecast: 3.75% / USDX – volatile

The Fed kept the policy range at 3.5%–3.75% at its March meeting. The FOMC remains cautious: the prolonged Middle East conflict exerts sustained upward pressure on energy costs and risks second-round inflation. While the committee left room for one cut later this year, some members do not rule out further tightening if inflation remains above target. Recognition of growing risks to employment and prices amid the geopolitical crisis will keep the dollar index volatile.

27 April, 20:30 / Eurozone / Speech by Isabel Schnabel (ECB Executive Board) / EUR/USD 28 April, 09:30 / Japan / Speech by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda / USD/JPY 28 April, 21:30 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD 29 April, 17:30 / Canada / Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem / USD/CAD 29 April, 18:30 / Eurozone / Speech by Claudia Buch (ECB Supervisory Board) / EUR/USD 29 April, 21:30 / USA / Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell / USDX

Senior central bank speakers are scheduled for these days. Their comments typically trigger FX volatility as they may signal future policy paths.