FX.co ★ USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 1. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 159.23 coincided with the MACD indicator moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling dollars. As a result, the pair decreased by 10 pips.

Last Friday, the yen failed to capitalize on expectations of a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran. Despite a breakthrough in negotiations reported at the end of last week, the Japanese currency did not demonstrate the expected strengthening, remaining under pressure against the dollar. The main reason for this behavior was the lack of a final decision and, most importantly, Donald Trump's signature on the agreed peace deal. This indicates that the experience of previous political steps by the American president creates an atmosphere of extreme caution, and investors are hesitant to make long-term bets until they receive undeniable confirmation.

Thus, the yen remains in uncertainty. Its fate depends directly on further developments, specifically whether the reached agreement will be approved at the highest level and what concrete steps will follow. Meanwhile, the market is in a wait-and-see mode, and the Japanese currency continues to fluctuate around 160, reflecting this duality.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point at 159.51 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 159.84 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.84, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and on serious dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.42 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels, 159.51 and 159.84.

Selling Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the level at 159.42 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.15 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will return at any moment; they just need a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its descent from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 159.51 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline to opposite levels 159.42 and 159.15.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.