FX.co ★ Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 30, 2014

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6217

R2: 1.6196

R1: 1.6175

Current spot: 1.6120

S1: 1.6097

S2: 1.6057

S3: 1.6000

Technical summary:

It is still an open question whether we only have seen a correction from 1.5766 or we are at the beginning of an impulsive rally of this low. The big question is whether the overlapping structure from 1.5837 is a leading diagonal as blue wave i or it is an ending diagonal as red wave c. The complication from this two outcomes will be completely different. If it is an ending diagonal, we will see a new low below 1.5766 likely closer to 1.5566 to end the entire decline from 1.6787. However, if it is a leading diagonal, we should only see a move towards 1.6004 before the next impulsive rally higher sets in. This next rally will break above strong resistance at 1.6325 without much trouble for a continuation higher towards 1.6731. We prefer the bearish count slightly above the bullish count, only time will tell us which count is the correct one.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6200 was hit for a small profit. We will sell EUR at 1.6195 with a stop and revers at 1.6295.