FX.co ★ EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginners on June 16. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro:

The price test at 1.1598 coincided with the MACD indicator well below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Traders seem to be tired of Donald Trump's statements regarding preliminary peace agreements with Iran. The market craves specifics and details of the concluded deal, which are still absent. This uncertainty is putting noticeable pressure on the euro while simultaneously boosting demand for the US dollar. The lack of clear details fuels speculation and uncertainty, prompting investors to adopt a wait-and-see stance.

Traders and analysts are currently closely monitoring each move from the White House, trying to predict what concessions might have been made to Iran and how this will affect the geopolitical situation in the region. In particular, questions arise regarding the sanctions regime, which, according to rumors, may be eased in exchange for certain guarantees from Tehran, something Israel strongly opposes.

In the first half of the day, attention will shift to Italy's consumer price index data, which may significantly influence the European Central Bank's inflation expectations for the eurozone. At the same time, traders' attention will be drawn to the business sentiment indices for Germany and the eurozone from the ZEW institute. These leading indicators reflect business expectations regarding future economic activity. Negative dynamics or figures below expectations could add further pressure on the euro, signaling a potential slowdown in economic growth in key eurozone economies.

If the published data is weaker than expected, the pressure on the euro will only increase. This could trigger a decline of the euro to new local lows, especially if these releases coincide with general market nervousness or new negative news from the Middle East.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today when the price reaches around 1.1590 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1619. At point 1.1619, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro immediately on the bounce (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point). We can only expect euro growth after strong eurozone data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1569 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to opposing levels of 1.1590 and 1.1619.

Sell Scenarios:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1569 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1545, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will only return in case of very weak reports. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1590 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decrease to opposing levels of 1.1569 and 1.1545.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.