FX.co ★ Record withdrawals from exchanges coincide with crypto market crash

Data from CryptoQuant show, at first glance, different metrics but the same picture: anomalous exchange outflows into cold storage were recorded at the moment of greatest price weakness.

Now, when Ethereum's price plunged to $1,500 — a multi?month low — and then recovered slightly, the number of withdrawal transactions from major exchanges surged to 166,000, a record for this indicator. In other words, precisely when Ethereum looked most beaten down, users were withdrawing coins from exchanges at rates the chart has never shown before. Historically, this behavior is interpreted as accumulation: investors prefer to hold Ethereum in their own wallets rather than on exchange accounts ready for immediate sale.

As for Bitcoin, the aggregate balance on wallets excluding exchange and mining addresses points to the behavior of large independent holders. From July 2025 through the end of 2025, their balance fell in line with Bitcoin's price decline from $120,000 to the $85,000–90,000 range, indicating liquidation of some positions during the correction. But in recent weeks, the picture has changed sharply: the 30?day percentage growth in the balance of this category of addresses jumped to roughly 25%, double any previous peak in the past twelve months, including the accumulation spike in early 2026. This surge comes exactly when Bitcoin's price dropped to $55,000–60,000 — i.e., during the deepest drawdown of the cycle, large non?exchange holders sharply increased accumulation.

Both data sets support the same thesis I have repeatedly noted: long?term Bitcoin holders retain a record 16 million coins and barely move them to exchanges, and their average purchase price of about $48,400 remains the key level below which true capitulation will begin. Of course, this is not a guarantee of an immediate reversal, but this kind of divergence — falling price alongside rising on?chain accumulation — has historically accompanied the final phases of bear cycles before a sustained recovery began.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are now targeting a return to $62,600, which opens a direct path to $64,000, and then $65,500, surpassing which would signal attempts to restore a bull market. In case of a Bitcoin decline, buyers are expected at $60,600. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $58,500. The farther target is the $56,100 area.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $1,725 opens a direct path to $1,774. The farther target is the high around $1,838; breaking above that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, buyers are expected at $1,650. A return below that area could quickly push ETH down toward $1,573. The farther target is the $1,515 area.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.