FX.co ★ XAU/USD Price Analysis and Forecast: Gold Remains Under Pressure

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure on Wednesday, attempting to hold above the $4,050 level.

The U.S. dollar is losing ground as bullish traders reduce their positions ahead of the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) June meeting. This could provide some support for gold. However, the broader fundamental backdrop warrants caution before concluding that the correction from levels just above $4,200, or from the two-week high reached on Monday, has already run its course.

On Tuesday, the U.S. military launched a new wave of strikes against Iran following reports of attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, further jeopardizing an already fragile ceasefire. Traders quickly priced in a higher geopolitical risk premium amid concerns that escalating tensions could further reinforce the U.S. dollar's safe-haven appeal while simultaneously limiting upside potential for gold.

The United States also revoked Iran's authorization to sell oil on international markets, triggering a sharp rise in oil prices on Tuesday.These developments have once again fueled concerns about energy-driven inflation and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary policy for an extended period. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently assign an 80% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate by at least 25 basis points before the end of the year.

Expectations of a more hawkish tone in the FOMC meeting minutes have also pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher. On Wednesday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.567%, while the yield on the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury note climbed to 4.189%.

This environment favors U.S. dollar bulls and creates additional headwinds for non-yielding gold, limiting its upward potential. Therefore, it is prudent to wait for confirmation of renewed buying interest before opening new long positions in XAU/USD.

From a technical perspective, oscillators remain in negative territory, confirming that bears retain the advantage. Gold is attempting to establish support around the $4,050 level, with the next support located at the psychological $4,000 level. The nearest resistance is provided by the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently around $4,145. A sustained break above this level would significantly improve the prospects for further gains.