FX.co ★ Trader's calendar for July 22–24

Yemeni Houthis have issued a stark warning to shipowners, ordering them not to call at Saudi ports and threatening missile strikes on any vessels within their reach. This move directly threatens Saudi oil exports through the major Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea and forces the Riyadh-led coalition to urgently bolster defenses in the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The situation has intensified amid reports in The Washington Post that the US and Iran are on the brink of full-scale war after exchanges of strikes that cost the lives of several US service members.

The Pentagon is rapidly redeploying additional combat aircraft to the Middle East, but US officials acknowledge that the scale of potential operations is severely constrained by depleted air-defense stocks, a shortage of precision munitions and damaged logistics infrastructure. In response, Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf harshly criticized the US buildup, saying Washington misjudges Tehran's level of intelligence awareness. In recent days, international intermediaries — Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan — have submitted an official proposal to Washington and Tehran for an urgent 10-day ceasefire.

The initiative aims to fully reopen commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and return both sides to compliance with the previously signed memorandum of understanding. Trump's administration is studying the proposal; US forces have already sent dozens of fighters and tankers to the region in case talks fail. Currently, the parties face a fork in the road with two possible scenarios:

• signing a 10-day ceasefire, or
• launching a large-scale military operation to force Iran into full capitulation.

US industry and retail under pressure

US public debt is forecast to reach $40.7 trillion in 2026, becoming the largest sovereign debt stock in the world. Donald Trump plans to introduce new import tariffs on dozens of countries this week to replace the temporary 10% global duties that expire Friday. Trade pressure is unfolding against the backdrop of the worst corporate default crisis in 16 years in the US: 372 large companies filed for bankruptcy in the first half of 2026. This is the fourth consecutive year of rising defaults in H1, and the six-month total has already exceeded all of 2022's bankruptcies (317 companies). The hardest hit sectors were:

• industrials (50 companies)
• consumer goods and services (35)
• healthcare (26)

Citigroup writes the "Magnificent Seven" concept off

Citigroup strategists say the concept of the "Magnificent Seven" (Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, Microsoft) is dead as an investment benchmark, following the fate of the outdated FAANG acronym. The market has shifted focus to a broader "growth cluster" that includes developers and suppliers of AI infrastructure. These companies now account for more than half of the S&P 500's market value. Citi notes that P/E multiples of these firms remain attractive by historical standards, backed by forecasts of strong earnings growth through 2027.

The Bloomberg Magnificent Seven index has lost its status as the S&P 500's primary locomotive as investors redirect capital into sectors that benefit directly from large AI spending. Correlation within the "seven" has finally broken down. Microsoft and Meta fell on investor skepticism about the payback of multibillion-dollar data-center investments, while Apple surged thanks to its pragmatic refusal to join the costly "arms race" in AI infrastructure buildout.

The debate over reshaping the "Magnificent Seven" intensified after the high-profile IPO of SpaceX. At debut trading on June 12, 2026, its market cap reached $2.1 trillion, overtaking two long-standing Mag7 members:

• Meta
• Tesla

Reuters analysts predicted that expected IPOs of other large AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic would ultimately shift the balance of power and require new terminology. Wall Street actively discussed the acronym MANGOS (Meta, Anthropic, Nvidia, Alphabet, OpenAI, SpaceX) and the term "Magna Atoms," proposed by the head of BRI Wealth Management. However, by mid-July, SpaceX shares experienced a sharp correction and fell below the IPO price for the first time, trimming its market cap and pushing it down to 10th place among the world's most valuable companies.

AI startups +45%

• Artificial intelligence has become the main engine of American entrepreneurship. Since ChatGPT's launch in November 2022, the number of businesses in AI-related fields — including professional, scientific and technical services — has jumped 45%. For comparison:
• • construction added only 10% over the same period
  • the total number of new businesses across the US economy rose 20%

July 22

22 July, 02:50 / Japan / Exports in June / prev.: 14.8% / actual: 17.0% / forecast: 16.2% / USD/JPY – up

Japanese exports show strong growth. In June, the figure rose to 17.0% year-on-year — the best result since late 2022. Shipments were supported by high global demand for cars and semiconductors. Main buyers were China, the US, and ASEAN countries. Rising export revenues support the national economy. If the indicator slows next month, the yen could weaken.

22 July, 02:50 / Japan / Imports in June / prev.: 9.8% / actual: 12.5% / forecast: 12.8% / USD/JPY – up

Imports into Japan also increased. In June, the rate rose to 12.5% year?on?year. Domestic demand is supported by earlier stimulus measures. The country is buying more chips, equipment and chemicals. At the same time, crude oil purchases fell due to the Middle East conflict. A weaker yen raises import costs and boosts inflation. Higher input costs will weigh on the yen.

22 July, 09:00 / UK / PPI Input (June) / prev.: 7.9% / actual: 8.7% / forecast: 9.0% / GBP/USD – up

UK producer input costs resumed growth. In May, the indicator rose to 8.7% year-on-year. Prices accelerated due to higher fuel and logistics costs. Analysts expect industrial inflation to climb to 9.0% in June. Rising costs will force companies to raise output prices, increasing the risk of higher overall inflation. This should support the pound.

22 July, 09:00 / UK / Retail Price Index (June) / prev.: 3.0% / actual: 3.1% / forecast: 3.2% / GBP/USD – up

UK retail inflation shows a slight uptick. In May, RPI rose to 3.1% year-on-year. This measure includes housing costs and mortgage expenses. Analysts forecast a rise to 3.2% in June. A modest acceleration reduces the odds of near-term policy easing and supports sterling, which should appreciate.

22 July, 17:30 / US / Crude oil inventories (EIA) / prev.: +2.998 mln bbl / actual: -1.693 mln bbl / forecast: -2.100 mln bbl / Brent – volatile

US commercial crude stocks have started to decline again. Over the reporting week, inventories fell by 1.693 million barrels. A drop in gasoline stocks confirms strong summer demand. However, a rise in distillate inventories is limiting a sharp price surge. Analysts expect inventories could fall another 2.100 million barrels next week. Mixed factors will cause market volatility. At the time of publication, Brent will likely show increased volatility.