FX.co ★ Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on August 10

Bitcoin remained above $65,000, while Ethereum approached the $1,950 level closely after American data changed the balance of power in the market, if only temporarily.

As the report showed, employment in the US non-farm sector fell by 23,000 in July, against an expected increase of 83,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, down from the projected 4.2%. The result was worse than even the most pessimistic bank forecasts, whose lower bound was 65,000, making July's report one of the most notable statistical surprises in recent months. The reason such data is favorable for the cryptocurrency market lies in the direct mechanics of interest rate expectations. Weak hiring and rising unemployment typically reduce inflationary pressure from demand and weaken arguments for tightening monetary policy, thereby decreasing the likelihood of a rate hike and increasing chances for a future reduction.

That is exactly how the market reacted: the CME FedWatch tool immediately lowered the probability of a rate increase at the September meeting from about 55-57% to 40%, while the chance of leaving rates unchanged jumped to 66%. On Polymarket, the probability of any rate hike by the end of 2026 crashed from a recent high of 77% to 56%. A lower likelihood of policy tightening directly reduces pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as it lowers the alternative costs of holding non-yielding assets and weakens the dollar, which historically correlates with Bitcoin's rise.

Bitcoin responded with a nearly 2% rise for the day, breaking through the $65,000 mark and exiting the $62,000-65,000 range that had held prices for several weeks. Ethereum gained about 0.5-1.4%, rising above $1,900.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today at the entry point around $65,300 with a target rise to $65,500. At around $65,500, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately on a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario No. 2: Buying Bitcoin can be done from the lower boundary of $65,100 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $65,300 and $65,500.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when reaching the entry point around $65,100 with a target drop to $64,800. At around $64,800, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately on a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario No. 2: Selling Bitcoin can be done from the upper boundary of $65,300 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $65,100 and $64,800.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when reaching the entry point around $1,930 with a target rise to $1,942. At around $1,942, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately on a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario No. 2: Buying Ethereum can be done from the lower boundary of $1,921 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $1,930 and $1,942.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when reaching the entry point around $1,921 with a target drop to $1,905. At around $1,905, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately on a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario No. 2: Selling Ethereum can be done from the upper boundary of $1,930 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $1,921 and $1,905.