FX.co ★ Gold Returned Above $4,400 Ahead of US Inflation

Gold rose 0.7 percent today to $4,401.57 an ounce, at one point gaining up to 1.1 percent and returning above $4,400 a day after retreating from a two-month high. Silver rose 1.2 percent to $65.45, and platinum and palladium also advanced.

Traders are simultaneously assessing the prospects of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and awaiting US inflation data that could provide new clues about the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. Yesterday Pakistan's defense minister said the US and Iran were close to some agreement on the strait, but that came after both sides had significantly hardened their positions on managing the waterway critical to global energy flows. The oil price rebound amid the ongoing deadlock in the Middle East has clouded the outlook for monetary policy.

All this suggests traders are refraining from large bets ahead of the inflation report: interest-rate swaps show the probability of a quarter-point hike next month is nearly a coin toss. The report itself, according to the consensus of economists, is expected to show consumer prices rising 0.1 percent in July after a 0.4 percent decline the month before. After Friday's weak employment report, a slowdown in price growth could help ease some inflationary concerns within the Fed. However, momentum toward more aggressive monetary policy—which is traditionally negative for non-yielding gold—would strengthen if high energy prices create additional inflationary pressure.

Although the macro backdrop has become more supportive, it remains fragile. A weaker dollar and reduced expectations of further Fed tightening have helped precious metals. Still, renewed inflationary pressure, another jump in oil prices, or stronger US data could quickly revive rate-hike expectations.

Support around $4,200 is becoming increasingly important, while the main upside test is again focused on the 200-day moving average, now just below $4,500.

As for the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to clear the nearest resistance at $4,432. That would allow targeting $4,481, above which a breakout will be rather difficult. The most distant target is the $4,546 area. In the event of a decline, bears will try to take control of $4,372. If they succeed, a break of that range would seriously damage bulls' positions and push gold toward a low of $4,304, with the prospect of reaching $4,249.