FX.co ★ XAU/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: Geopolitical Risks Limit Upside for the Precious Metal

Gold (XAU/USD) is attempting to extend Friday's rebound from the $4,300 round level, the weekly low. Nevertheless, the precious metal is struggling to break above the 100-day SMA amid mixed fundamental signals.

Friday's economic data showed that US retail sales fell by 0.6% in July, marking the first decline in nine months and the most significant monthly decrease since May last year. This was accompanied by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which fell to 51 in August from 55.2 in the previous month. These data confirm a slowdown in US inflation and reduce expectations of an imminent interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), weakening the US dollar and supporting growing interest in gold.

Nevertheless, investors remain concerned that fluctuations in energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook and force the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance. Moreover, persistent geopolitical uncertainty helps limit more significant losses in the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, capping gains in gold prices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US was prepared to impose tough economic measures against Iran as early as this week. Together with the confrontation between the US and Iran, this supports high oil prices and could contribute to a stronger dollar.

Furthermore, President Donald Trump said he intends to declare the Strait of Hormuz "United States territory." At the same time, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the US must accept Tehran's conditions for shipping to resume in the area, adding that no negotiations are currently taking place. The situation is further aggravated by new Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, which support higher oil prices and maintain concerns about inflation, including the possibility of a Fed interest-rate hike in 2026.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders continue to assess the probability of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike by the end of the year at approximately 65%. This situation warrants caution among US dollar bears and limits the potential for further gains in gold prices.

For better trading opportunities, it is worth waiting for the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. Geopolitical developments could also affect the dynamics of the US dollar and the precious metal.

From a technical perspective, recent unsuccessful attempts to consolidate above the $4,400 level or the 100-day SMA call for caution among XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, the precious metal remains below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), limiting its upside despite the recent rebound.

The oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' advantage in the market. If gold manages to consolidate above the $4,400 level, this would allow the bulls to test the 200-day moving average near the $4,500 round level.

In the event of a decline, the first support is formed at the $4,300 round level, followed by the $4,220 level.