FX.co ★ NVIDIA rescue lifts market

The S&P 500 faced its first storm driven by extreme market concentration. When a narrow group of names pushes the index higher, the failure of one can cast a shadow over the rest and drag benchmarks down. The key question is whether peers will come to save a sinking name. NVIDIA chose to help CoreWeave, and that lifeline lifted the whole market.

Rising Treasury yields are hitting not only small caps but also the tech sector. Investors joke that it is a kind of marginal tax on any company that is not a high-quality hyperscaler. CoreWeave rents compute for training and running AI models and has recently seen a sharp rise in leverage. Higher Treasury yields toppled its stock.

CoreWeave and peer stock dynamics

Saxo added fuel to the fire by warning that investors are becoming more demanding about profitability, funding, and capital discipline. The firm contrasted high-earning chipmakers such as TSMC, Samsung, and ASML with indebted names like CoreWeave, Nebius, and Oracle. That prompted thoughts of rotation not only between sectors but within the tech universe itself.

NVIDIA's assurance that CoreWeave will be OK rescued the market and put the S&P 500 back on a roller-coaster ride. Treasury yields also stabilized, and robust US macro data combined with the Fed's reluctance to rush further tightening created a so-called Goldilocks backdrop for US equities.

US retail sales dynamics

Retail sales have risen in seven of the past eight months. In September, the indicator beat Bloomberg consensus by roughly two-to-one, up 0.8% month-on-month. Producer price inflation jumped to 6.3% year-over-year, the highest since late 2022. Together with headline CPI accelerating to 3.7%, this risks feeding through to the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

Still, the odds of an October rate hike rose only modestly, from about 25% to 28%. The central bank is in no rush to tighten policy, and against a still-solid US economy, this provides a tailwind for the S&P 500. The core investor concern remains the ability of the market's pillars, the tech giants, to generate returns. Panic can subside quickly, however, if Wall Street's earnings forecasts hold up.

Technically, the S&P 500 reclaimed fair value at 7,725 on the daily chart, which is a constructive sign. As long as the price stays above that support level, bulls remain in control, and buying is again justified.