FX.co ★ Digital euro: matter of sovereignty

Meanwhile, as Bitcoin once again slips below $80,000 — which sooner or later will lead to more rapid sell-offs and a break in the bull trend — ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone said late last week that the digital euro, whose pilot launch is scheduled for the next year, could give the euro area sovereignty over payment infrastructure that today depends on external non-European participants.

Cipollone did not name specific dependent parties but explained the logic: when a region is critically dependent on third parties, keeping payments running smoothly is difficult. "In recent years, Europe has understood that for some important services you cannot rely solely on third parties. We saw this in energy, and today we see it in defense. The same is true for payments," he said.

He immediately stressed that sovereignty does not mean closing the market to external players. "It means having the ability to choose and knowing that for such an important service as payments, Europe can also rely on its own capabilities," Cipollone emphasized. Notably, the argument is framed around security rather than technology. The digital euro is presented as insurance rather than a competitor to existing services.

Cipollone previously quantified the scale of dependence in April. According to him, two-thirds of card payments in the euro area are handled by non-European companies, a strategic vulnerability that the digital euro could mitigate by creating payment infrastructure under European control. The pilot will use real transactions by ECB and national central bank staff. Thirty-six market operators have already joined the preparations, including seven from Italy, and the ECB is inviting e-commerce and mobile payment operators to participate.

But the main obstacle is not in Frankfurt; it is within the slow, bureaucratic European decision-making machinery. The ECB's Governing Council will be able to decide on issuing the digital euro only after the legislative negotiations in Brussels are completed. "We hope that the regulation will be adopted by the end of the year, which would allow the ECB Governing Council to take an official decision on issuance," Cipollone said. By way of comparison, the US banking regulator OCC has just adopted final rules under the GENIUS Act on payment stablecoins, which will take effect on January 18, 2027, and Hong Kong's HSBC has launched its own token, RedCoin. Competition between central and private digital monies is accelerating, and Europe has ever less time.

I tend to think that adopting the regulation by year-end will be difficult because negotiations in Brussels are moving slower than announced, and the ECB's formal decision and the pilot may be delayed. But I regard the course toward a digital euro as a tool of payment independence as irreversible, and the more active dollars in the form of stablecoins become, the stronger the political support for the project will be.

Technical analysis and trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $80,900, which opens a direct path to $82,800, and from there $84,500 is close at hand — breaking that would signal attempts to restore the bull market. In the event of a Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers at $78,700. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC down toward $76,900. The most distant target would be around $75,300.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,348 opens a direct path to $2,417. The most distant target would be the high near $2,508; breaching that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. In case of a drop, I expect buyers at $2,274. A return below that area could quickly drive ETH down toward $2,231. The most distant target would be around $2,184.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.