FX.co ★ GBP/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 9

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3386 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero line. Therefore, the buying opportunity was not taken, and the entire upward move in the pair was missed.

The pound rose steadily against the U.S. dollar throughout the first half of the day, with buyers facing no significant obstacles. Sellers, who had been active toward the end of last week, appear to have stepped aside and are waiting for the U.S. inflation report due tomorrow. By comparison, Friday's strong U.S. labor market report put downward pressure on the pair, while the Bank of England's decision to raise its interest rate to 4.00% failed to provide sufficient support for the pound.

In the second half of today, U.S. wholesale inventories will be released, with a forecast of 0.6%. However, the main events will be speeches by Fed officials Austan Goolsbee and Thomas Barkin. Goolsbee previously identified inflation as the regulator's main concern, while Barkin supported a gradual pace of interest rate increases last week. The market currently estimates the probability of another rate hike before the end of the year at nearly 80%. Therefore, only particularly hawkish comments from policymakers could restore downward pressure on the pair. If their tone remains moderate, the pound is likely to retain its recent gains.

Regarding the intraday trading strategy, the focus will be primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: The pound can be bought today if the price reaches the entry level around 1.3424 (the thin green line on the chart), with an upward target at 1.3446 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3446, the long position is planned to be closed, followed by opening a short position, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. The pound may rise today if U.S. economic data comes in weaker than expected.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun to rise from it.

Scenario #2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.3405 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could then rise toward the next upward targets of 1.3424 and 1.3446.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: The pound can be sold today after the price breaks below the 1.3405 level (the red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' main target will be 1.3385, where the short position is planned to be closed, followed by immediately opening a long position, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Strong selling pressure on the pound could return if U.S. economic data comes in stronger than expected.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun to decline from it.

Scenario #2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.3424 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could then decline toward the next downward targets of 1.3405 and 1.3385.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold conditions.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should exercise considerable caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally preferable to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially when position sizes are large and proper money management is not applied.

It is also important to remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently unprofitable strategy for intraday traders.