FX.co ★ EUR/ USD Movement Forecast for September 3, 2012 from 14:00 (+3 GMT)

Debriefing
The release of strong economic data contributed negatively to technical analysis:
- At 11:55 Moscow time the German PMI index for August was disclosed. The reading was 44.7 against the forecast of 45.1, the previous reading - 43.0.
- At 12:00 Moscow time we will get the European PMI index for August. The indicator reached the level of 45.1 in contrast to expected 45.3, the previous reading – 44.0
Taking this into account, the overall situation did not change. Until the price does not close the 1-hour candlestick below the 1.2558 level (the local low of this day), trend analysis will demonstrate an upward move,
Monday is a bank holiday in the USA and Canada that is why financial markets are closed today in these countries. It means that since 16:30 Moscow time the market will be operating in a narrow range and any insignificant news may trigger the price move to any direction.
Trend Analysis :
The price has not broken the horizontal level of 1.2578 yet, but let me show you one interesting picture.
On 12-hour chart (you can easily build this chart using InstaForex-5 demo version) the price has returned to the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle after it broke through this pattern in upward direction. The price demonstrated by this that the mentioned above line turned to be the level of support and we observed the price hitting the support level for the 3d time (point №of symmetrical triangle). The third hitting of the support line gives us a positive probability of 70% for upward direction.
Outcome: trend analysis signifies of the ascending tendency with the target of 1.2630 (the resistance line of week descending channel).

Chart. 1 (12-hour chart)