FX.co ★ EUR/JPY - Elliott Wave Analysis for September 18 - 2012

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

S1: 102.47 R1: 103.86

S2: 101.61 R2: 104.44

S3: 100.92 R3: 104.90

Technical Overview:

It seems that we have ended red wave 5 which also marks the top of black wave 3. Red wave 5 fell a little bit more to 104.01, but at the level of 103.86 red wave 5 was 1.382 times the length of the distance traveled from the bottom of red wave 1 to the top of red wave 3. This ratio is not the most common, but when we are looking at the extended waves, picking the exact top is very difficult, so being just 15 small pips of we think is not that bad.

If black wave 3 indeed finished at 103.86, we should now be looking for a correction in black wave 4. If we first look at black wave 2, it was simple but of a deep zig-zag correction and, therefore, we should look for a shallow but complex correction in wave 4 due R.N. Elliott alternation principle. The complex correction would ideally be a combination of three waves corrections or it could be a triangle as these two types of corrections alternate with the zig-zag in wave 2.

The ideal target area for this correction is between 99.38 - 100.44. We do find it most likely that the wave 4 correction will end near 100.44, but time will show.

Trading recommendation:

If you have not exited your long EUR already, you should do so now. As we think a top is in place, we should focus our mind set towards the downside for the correction. However, this will likely be a complex correction and, therefore, should be traded with the outmost care. Sell EUR at 103.35 with a 103.90 stop and take profit at 100.60.