FX.co ★ NZD/CAD Wave Analysis for September 28, 2012

NZD/CAD Elliott Wave
For the last 3 days the NZD/CAD pair was trading in an upward move, developing first impulsive wave (1) (coloured green) of the bigger wave (3) (coloured orange). During the European and New York sessions, we could observe an ascending movement towards the 0.8160 level and we can consider this move as the end of the impulsive (3) wave (coloured purple). Today during the early Asian session, the NZD/CAD pair continued trading in a bullish mood reaching 0.8176 level and we can consider this move as the end of the (1) wave (coloured green). At the moment, this currency pair is trading around 0.8160 level and we are expecting to see the price lower for the next few days. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 2 should retrace 61.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci Retracement (0.8025-0.8176), with Take Profit 1 at 0.8105 (50% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 0.8086 (61.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 0.8182 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor NZD Building Consents m/m and CAD GDP m/m data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.8090 (S2) 0.8110 (S1) 0.8123 (PP) 0.8143 (R1) 0.8163 (R2) 0.8176 (R3) 0.8196
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at the level 0.8150 with Stop Loss 0.8182 ,Take Profit 1 at 0.8110 and Take Profit 2 at 0.8086 are recommended.