FX.co ★ EUR/USD. Forecast for October 8, 2012

The US statistics is rarely surprising, but when it is, it has a great impact on markets. Non-farm payrolls for September came out in line with expectations at 114K but August data was revised from 96K to 142K and July non-farm payrolls were revised from 141K to 181K. Besides, the unemployment rate dropped from 8.1% to 7.8%. There was a suggestion that August data was intentionally lowered in order to start QE3. It is seems to be true. Taking into account the fact that data for September was not as high as it used to be, we are awaiting another surprise in October. Thus, investors are given positive statistics again, although it can be somehow connected with the upcoming elections.
Today the meeting of Eurozone finance ministers is taking place, tomorrow there will be summit of economy and finance ministers. It is a holiday in the USA today. The upcoming week is going to be intense: main macroeconomic indices are forecasted to be worse in comparison with the previous periods. Apart from EU summit, there will be G-7 summit, as well as the IMF and World Bank conference, and press conferences of the Central Banks’ heads. Starting from this week the largest US companies will provide reports for the third quarter.
At 10:00 (GMT +3) Germany trade balance for August is released. The indicator is expected to reach 15.8 bn euro against 16.9 bn euro. At 14:00 (GMT +3) we are waiting for Germany industrial output for August: forecast -0.7% against 1.3% in July.
Technically we can consider growth towards Friday’s high of 1.3072.