FX.co ★ EUR/USD. Forecast for October 9, 2012

Macroeconomic data was positive yesterday. Germany trade balance registered a surplus from 16.3 bn euro in July to 18.3 bn euro, while the forecast was 15.8 bn euro. Industrial production for August demonstrated a decline of 0.5% against expected -0.7% and 1.2% acceleration in July. However, the markets were going down amid negative outlooks from IFO, Insee, and Istat about Eurozone 0.2% GDP contraction in the 3d quarter against forecasted earlier 0.1% decline. Moreover, special advisor to the Managing Director of the IMF David Lipton shared his pessimistic data on the US economy. In addition, he stated about the Parliament discordance on budget issue. Besides, the World Bank lowered it outlook on China GDP from the previously estimated reading of 8.2% to 7.7%.
Yet, we start getting positive data: the European Group welcomed the Portuguese tax reform and as the result, granted 800 mln euro of financial aid.
Technically, the main scenario is still the ascending movement. In case 1.3000 is tested, the growth will extend to 1.3043, and then to 1.3088. If Krusenshtern line is breached below 1.2931 (yesterday’s fall stopped at this level), the decrease can continue towards 1.2885, 1.2860, and 1.2803.