FX.co ★ Technical analysis of USDCAD for August 10, 2016

There has been a lot of talk about the long-term triangle pattern in the USDCAD and even more talk if there is a breakout or a false breakout. Let's look at the facts. Price has broken above most triangle patterns available at least twice. However, there has been no clear strong breakout on a weekly basis. Price remains close to the triangle breakout area.

Blue lines - triangle pattern

USDCAD is trading above the Daily Kumo and right below the upper triangle boundary. Price is making higher highs and higher lows since early June but there is no strong breakout only more choppy price action. The recent pull back increases the chances for another test of the lower triangle boundary, but a clear break out above 1.3250 will open the way for a push towards 1.36.

In the 4 hour chart I see price making a bearish reversal after a rejection at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Price is testing short-term support at 1.3120-1.30.80. A break below this level will open the way for a re-test of the 1.30 low. A break below 1.30 will squeeze a lot of the last week bulls towards 1.29 or even lower in case the bigger formation is just a bearish pennant /flag.