FX.co ★ EUR/USD. Forecast for January 25, 2013

Yesterday’s data on the Euro area and the USA was better than it was expected and the euro chose bullish scenario. German Manufacturing PMI was up 48.8 points against 47.1 points; Euro Area Manufacturing PMI was 47.5 against 46.6. Meanwhile, Current account in Euro Area in November was 14.8 bln euros against forecast for 6.5 bln euros. Initial Jobless Claims accounted for 330K against forecast for 359K.

Today at 13:30 GMT+4 Ifo Business Climate Index in January is published. It is expected to be 103 vs. 102.4 in December. At 19:00 GMT+4 U.S. New home sales are published. It is forecast to be 385 - 387K against 377K in November.

If today’s data is better than it is expected, we may observe continuation of the euro’s growth towards resistance of the trendlines on H4: 1.3400 and 1.3438. After the price of 1.3335, the low of January 14, which coincides with the Krusenshtern trend line (blue sliding) on H4, negative data may facilitate a test of bearish targets. It is defined also by trendlines on H4: 1.3297 and 1.3257.