FX.co ★ EUR/USD. Forecast for March 21, 2013

Yesterday data on Current Account in Eurozone was published. In January it was unexpectedly strong, 14.8 billion euros against forecast for 7.9 billion. The euro rose till the moment Ben Bernanke’s speech. The Chairman said the Federal Reserve would alter its monthly bond buying in response to gains in the job market, underscoring a need for flexibility as he expands Fed assets beyond a record $3 trillion. The Fed’s monthly purchases will remain divided between $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities and $45 billion of Treasury securities, the FOMC said. The purchases are aimed at spurring the economy by lowering interest rates on everything from mortgages to car loans.

Today at 12:00 GMT+4 data on PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services in France in March is published. At 12:30 GMT+4 the same indices are issued for Germany. Expectation are higher than the February’s figures. At 13:00 GMT+4 indices in Eurozone are revealed; PMI Manufacturing is expected to be 48.2 against 47.9 in February, PMI Services is forecast to be 48.2 vs. 47.3.

At 16:30 GMT+4 data on US Initial Jobless Claims is revealed. It is forecast to be 343K against 332K in the previous week. Philadelphia Fed index in March is expected to be better than in the previous month. US Existing home sales in February is forecast to be 5.02 million against 4.92 million in January, i.e. we expect optimism towards Initial Jobless Claims and market growth respectively.

From the technical point of view, the growth continues after 1.2964, the low of March 6, was tested the first target is 1.3028, the level of Fibonacci 271% on the H4, the second target is 1.3052, the level of 261.8%. The third target is 1.3065, conjunction of trendline and the level of Fibonacci 61.8% on the daily chart, the medium-term target is 1.3275, resistance of trendline on the daily chart.