FX.co ★ EUR/USD. Forecast for April 16, 2013

As it was expected data on Trade Balance in the Eurozone in February was better than expected (12.0 billion euros vs. 8.7 billion euros in the previous month). However, it did not manage to surpass negative news from China. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index in April was 3.1 vs. 9.2 in February also had impact on the whole picture. DJIA edged down 1.7%, gold fell 7.4%, and the euro dropped 80 points. Negative news came from Boston where 130 were injured and three killed in the explosion.

Today positive macroeconomic news is not expected again. At 13:00 GMT+4 ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany in April is estimated to drop from 48.5 in March to 41.5. At 16:30 GMT+4 data on US Building Permits in March is issued, it is expected to be flat (944K), US Housing Starts is estimated to be 930K vs. 917K in February. At 17:15 GMT+4 data on US Manufacturing Production is revealed, it is forecast to be 0.1% vs. 0.8% in February. US Capacity Utilization is expected to fall from 78.4% to 79.6%.

Technically, after the level of 1.3037 is tested we expect further decline to the target levels on the H4: 1.3004, 1.2990, and 1.2968.