FX.co ★ EUR/USD. Forecast for June 17, 2013

Published on Friday data on US Industrial Production was weak. US Capacity Utilization in May was 77.6% vs. 77.9% and April's figures were revised downwardly to 77.7%. US Industrial Production was flat vs. forecast for a 0.3% growth and April's figures were revised downwardly up to 0.4%. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June was 82.7 vs. expectations for 84.9. S&P 500 dropped 0.57%, the euro fell 28 points.

Today and even tomorrow the euro has possibility to move upwardly one more time before the Fed's decision to cut QE3 in the short term is revealed and the markets move downwardly. Today at 13:00 GMT+4 Trade balance in the eurozone in April is published, forecast 21.3 billion euros vs. 18.7 billion euros in March. At 16:30 GMT+4 Empire State Manufacturing Index in June is revealed, forecast 0.4 vs. -1.4 in May. The leaders of the Group of Eight (G8) are to begin a summit in Northern Ireland. The meeting will be held on Monday and Tuesday.
Lately, the fact that the euro moves amid speculation on the market is rather considerable, the US dollar may be bought before the Fed's meeting.

Technically, the development of 'the last' upward movement is possible after the testing level 1.3360 is broken, the target is the range 1.3424/40. if the lower testing level is broken 1.3313, the first target is the low of June 13, 1.3278. Consolidation under the level opens the target 1.3230, the low of June 11. Switch of the Marlin oscillator to the negative zone on the H4 chart is a sign that downward movement may develop.