FX.co ★ EUR/USD. Forecast for June 25, 2013

Major events from Monday were as follows: Ifo Business Confidence in Germany in June was lower than forecast. The Ifo institute’s Business Climate Index was 105.6 vs. forecast for 106.0, Current Assessment was 109.4 vs. 109.6, figures of Expectations index were 102.5 vs. 102.0. Yields on US Treasuries and European bonds rose, it increases demand for US dollars. Yields of US 10-year bonds grew 2.53%, which is more than planned 2.0% for program of government debt cut. Amid data the euro declined, but it closed the day having grown 3 points.

Today at 16:30 GMT+4 US Durable Goods Orders in May are published. Durable Goods Orders are expected to rise 3.0% vs. 3.3% in April, Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation is estimated to be flat vs. 1.3% in April. US Consumer Confidence in June is expected to drop, forecast 75 vs. 76.2 in May. US New Home Sales in May is expected to be 460K vs. 454K in April y-o-y and 1.3% vs. 2.3% in April m-o-m.

If data is approximately the same as forecasts, the upward correction may continue to the level of 1.3160, the low of June 20, after that we expect downward movement to the levels 1.3060 and 1.2997, the highs of May 22.