FX.co ★ GBP/USD. Forecast for August 12, 2013

On Friday, as it was expected, UK Trade Balance was better; deficit narrowed to -8.1 billion pounds vs. forecast for -8.4 billion pounds and -8.7 billion in May. Data on China was mixed, but the investors started to close the positions.

This morning Japan’s GDP in the second quarter grew only by 0.6% vs. estimates for 0.9%. On Tuesday, Retail Sales in the US is expected to drop.

If the price consolidates under the testing level 1.5482, we expect the pound drops to the first target 1.5435/40, the high of July 25, coinciding with the line of Kruzenshtern on the H4 and support of trend line on the daily chart. The second target, 1.5390 is the high of August 6. If the rate consolidates above 1.5529, the development of one more attempt to test a new local high 1.5603 (confluence of the highs from May 1-6).