FX.co ★ US PCE Inflation to Hold Steady, Core to Inch Higher

The United States Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is anticipated to have experienced a 0.3% month-over-month increase in February 2025, consistent with the growth rate observed in the preceding two months. Likewise, the core PCE index, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, is projected to similarly rise by 0.3%, echoing January's figures. On an annual basis, it is expected that the headline PCE inflation will remain unchanged at 2.5%, while the core PCE inflation is likely to see a slight uptick to 2.7% from 2.6%. At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve adjusted its PCE inflation projection for 2025, increasing it to 2.7% from 2.5%, and for 2026, elevating it to 2.2% from 2.1%, while retaining its forecast of 2% for 2027.