FX.co ★ US Consumer Inflation Expectations Highest Since 2023

Consumer inflation expectations in the United States for the coming year increased for the second consecutive month, reaching 3.6% in March 2025—the highest level since October 2023—rising from 3.1% in February. The anticipated price growth for the year ahead showed a median increase across various categories: food saw a rise of 0.1 percentage points reaching 5.2%, marking its highest point since May 2024; medical care jumped 0.7 percentage points to 7.9%; and rent increased 0.5 percentage points to 7.2%. Conversely, expected prices decreased in other sectors: gas fell by 0.5 percentage points to 3.2%, college education dropped 0.2 percentage points to 6.7%, and home price growth declined by 0.3 percentage points to 3%. Looking further ahead, inflation expectations remained static at 3% for the three-year horizon and slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% for the five-year outlook. Additionally, the median expectation for one-year-ahead earnings growth edged down by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8%, while the mean outlook for unemployment expectations spiked by 4.6 percentage points to 44%, marking the highest rate since April 2020.