FX.co ★ Australia Leading Index Stalls in April

In April 2025, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index for Australia remained steady, with no change following a 0.2% decrease the month prior. The six-month annualized growth rate, which indicates the anticipated pace of economic activity compared to the trend over the upcoming three to nine months, fell to 0.2% from March's 0.5%. This latest information indicates increasing uncertainty in the realm of global trade and a less favorable environment for commodity prices. While external factors primarily contribute to this decline, domestic conditions are exhibiting a mixed outlook with a deceleration in labor market momentum and only limited support from current interest rate levels, according to Matthew Hassan, Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting. Westpac forecasts GDP growth to achieve 1.9% on a year-on-year basis by the end of 2025, remaining below historical averages. In the meantime, it is anticipated that the Reserve Bank will proceed with a cautious and gradual approach to further easing in July, following a 25 basis point reduction in the cash rate in May.