FX.co ★ US Nonfarm Payrolls Seen at 110K in June

In June 2025, the increase in U.S. nonfarm payrolls is anticipated to have reached 110,000, marking the smallest rise in four months and showing a decline from the 139,000 increase observed in May. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.3%—its highest point since October 2021—up from 4.2%. Additionally, wage growth is predicted to have moderated to 0.3% from 0.4%. A slowdown in hiring is likely within the leisure and hospitality industry, reflecting a dip in consumer spending on tourism and travel-related services. Conversely, the healthcare sector is projected to remain a significant contributor to job growth. Overall, these figures suggest a continued cooling of the labor market, as ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs, trade, and immigration policies prompt many employers to exercise caution in hiring. Despite this, the data still indicate a fundamentally robust labor market, with monthly payroll increases ranging between 100,000 and 170,000—sufficient to keep pace with the growth in the working-age population.